Market Overview for Algorand/Tether (ALGOUSDT) on 2025-10-28

• • •
Summary
• ALGOUSDT broke out of a descending channel after 24 hours of consolidation, closing near the session high at 0.1902.
• Volume surged 4.5x above the 20-period average during the breakout, confirming bullish momentum.
• RSI reached 58, suggesting moderate strength, while MACD showed a positive crossover with rising histogram.
• Key support at 0.1885–0.1905 was tested and held, now acting as a potential entry trigger for longs.

The ALGOUSDT pair opened at 0.1892 on 2025-10-27 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.1902 on 2025-10-28 at the same time, forming a 15-minute candle that reached a high of 0.1924 and a low of 0.1849. Over the 24-hour period, total volume amounted to 16,348,047.0 and turnover reached 2,963,672.20. Price exhibited a clear breakout pattern, with strong volume confirmation during the morning hours.

Structure and formations reveal a descending channel that was decisively broken on the upside during the 05:00–07:00 ET window. A bullish engulfing pattern formed at the channel break, followed by a higher high and a bullish continuation. The 0.1905–0.1915 range acted as a key support-turned-resistance, which was retested and respected in the latter half of the day.

The 20-period EMA (20 EMA ≈ 0.1897) crossed above the 50-period EMA (50 EMA ≈ 0.1894), forming a “golden cross” on the 15-minute chart. On the daily chart, the 50-day MA sits at 0.1876 and the 200-day MA at 0.1852, both below the current price, indicating a short-term bullish bias. ALGOUSDT appears to be in the early stages of a potential trend reversal.

The MACD crossed above zero in the early morning hours, with the histogram expanding through the 05:00–07:00 ET period, aligning with the breakout. RSI reached a peak of 62 during this time and subsequently pulled back to 58, suggesting momentum remains constructive but not yet overextended. Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the breakout, with prices closing near the upper band, indicating heightened volatility and potential continuation.

Volume spiked sharply during the morning breakout and again in the early afternoon, confirming the move. Notable divergence in volume was observed in the early evening, as price tested the 0.1905 level but failed to follow through with significant volume, suggesting caution as the next leg could be delayed or more gradual. Turnover also aligned with these volume surges, showing no significant slippage or liquidity mismatch.

Applying Fibonacci retracement to the most recent 15-minute swing (0.1849–0.1924), the 61.8% level sits at 0.1896 and the 38.2% level at 0.1884, both near key support zones that were tested multiple times over the day. On the daily chart, the 0.1885–0.1905 range corresponds to a 38.2% retracement of the broader downtrend from 0.1950 to 0.1849, reinforcing its importance.

Backtest Hypothesis

To evaluate the proposed strategy—buying ALGOUSDT when price touches the support zone (0.1885–0.1905) and exiting at the next resistance level defined by the highest close of the previous 20 trading days—we would need to extract daily data from 2022-01-01 to 2025-10-28 to identify dynamic resistance levels. The highest close of the previous 20 days is a rule-based and adaptive technical indicator that adjusts with market conditions, making it suitable for both trend and range-bound environments.

Given that the most recent 20-day high close as of 2025-10-28 is 0.1938 (observed during the 05:30 ET candle), this would serve as the initial exit trigger for the entry at 0.1905. This approach avoids arbitrary fixed targets and instead uses market data to define risk and reward, making it more responsive to actual price behavior.

Implementing this strategy would involve entering longs at the 0.1885–0.1905 zone with a stop loss just below 0.1885 and a profit target at the next 20-day high close. By applying this logic across the 3.5-year back-test window, the performance of the strategy could be assessed in terms of win rate, risk-adjusted returns, and drawdowns.