Market Overview for Algorand (ALGOUSD) on 2025-09-04

• Algorand (ALGOUSD) closed lower by ~6.5% in 24 hours amid a steady bearish drift.
• Momentum indicators show weakening bullish conviction with RSI trending toward oversold territory.
• Volatility expanded sharply during a late-night 15-minute drop of ~1.3%.
• Bollinger Bands constricted mid-day before widening, signaling potential trend continuation.
• Turnover surged during key breakdowns, confirming bearish continuation patterns.

Algorand (ALGOUSD) opened at $0.2366 on 2025-09-03 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.23 on 2025-09-04 at the same time, with a 24-hour high of $0.2366 and a low of $0.2272. Total volume across the 24-hour window was 24,734.0, and notional turnover reached $6,416.63.

Structure & Formations

The price action formed a bearish continuation pattern with a breakdown below key support at $0.2350, followed by a confirmed test and retest. A 15-minute engulfing bearish candle at 02:45 ET and a long bearish candle at 05:45 ET confirmed the downward shift. A doji formed at $0.2322 during consolidation, suggesting hesitation. Key support appears to have shifted to the $0.2250–0.2270 range.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both in a downward trend, with the price currently below both. On the daily timeframe, the 50/100/200 SMA lines are converging from the top, with the 50 SMA pulling down from above the 100 SMA. Algorand is under clear bearish control as of the 24-hour close.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed below the signal line early in the evening session, confirming a bearish reversal. The histogram has been shrinking since 02:00 ET, indicating a possible slowdown in momentum. RSI has fallen to 28 by close, entering oversold territory. This suggests potential for a short-term bounce, though the longer-term bearish bias remains intact.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands contracted tightly between 03:00–04:00 ET before widening sharply as price broke down below the lower band. This volatility expansion aligns with increased volume and confirms a breakout rather than a false move. Price remains below the lower band, suggesting bearish continuation unless a strong reversal forms.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the key breakdown at $0.2341 and again during the 05:45 ET candle as price moved toward $0.23. Turnover confirmed the breakdown with higher notional value traded during bearish candles. However, volume has diminished significantly in the last 6 hours, suggesting exhaustion or lack of follow-through.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent swing from $0.2272 to $0.2346, Algorand is currently testing the 61.8% level (~$0.2296) and may attempt a bounce from there. On the daily chart, the 61.8% level from the broader downtrend is near $0.22, aligning with the current price path.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent breakdown and confirmation through volume and technical indicators, a backtest strategy could involve a short entry on a close below $0.23 with a stop above the $0.2337 level (recent swing high). A profit target could be set at the 61.8% Fibonacci level of $0.2272, or a 3:1 risk-reward target at $0.2200. This approach leverages confirmed bearish divergences and key support levels identified in the candlestick and indicator analysis.