Market Overview for Alchemix/Tether USDt (ALCXUSDT): Strong Bullish Reversal Confirmed

• ALCXUSDT rallied sharply from a 9.13 low to a 9.67 high, closing near the session top at 9.53.
• Volatility and volume spiked after 13:00 ET, confirming strong momentum.
• RSI and MACD signaled overbought conditions in the final hours.
• A bullish engulfing pattern formed on the 15-min chart during key breakouts.
• Price traded above the 50-period moving average and tested 9.50-9.60 as key resistance.

The ALCXUSDT pair opened at 9.20 on September 4 at 12:00 ET and closed at 9.53 the following day at 12:00 ET. The pair reached a high of 9.67 and a low of 9.13 within the 24-hour period, reflecting a price range of 0.54 or 5.9%. Total volume traded stood at 22,608.82 units, with a notional turnover of $213,022 (assuming USDt as the denominator).

Structure & Formations

ALCXUSDT displayed a strong bullish reversal pattern on the 15-minute chart, with a key bullish engulfing pattern forming between 07:45 ET and 08:00 ET as price broke above 9.52. The pair also formed a doji near the 9.45 level, signaling indecision before the final leg of the upward move. Price found support at 9.13 and 9.15, with the 9.50-9.60 zone forming a new dynamic resistance cluster as it saw multiple retests and failed pullbacks.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were both bullish and provided support during the rally. The daily chart saw the price close above the 50-period MA at ~9.39, while the 200-period MA (not explicitly shown in data) likely acted as a psychological floor. The pair is now in a positive crossover and remains above key mid-term averages, suggesting bullish continuation may be likely.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned positive and crossed above the signal line around 07:00 ET, with the histogram expanding as the rally accelerated. RSI reached an overbought level of 78 by 13:30 ET and remained elevated, suggesting a potential correction or consolidation could be on the horizon. However, given the strength of the move and the confirmation from volume, RSI overbought conditions may hold for an extended period before a pullback.

Bollinger Bands

Price traded near the upper Bollinger Band for much of the session, especially after 10:00 ET, indicating high volatility and bullish bias. A contraction in the bands was observed before 07:00 ET, followed by a breakout aligned with the MACD signal. The current wide band width supports the idea that price is in a trending environment, and the upper band at ~9.65 is a potential near-term ceiling.

Volume & Turnover

Volume increased sharply after 13:00 ET, with the largest 15-minute trade volume at 2260.88 units (9.62 high). Turnover spiked in the final hours, confirming the strength of the move. Notably, price and turnover aligned—no divergences were observed during the rally, suggesting the bullish move is supported by strong buyer participation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent 15-minute swing from 9.13 to 9.67, the 61.8% retraction level sits at ~9.48. The pair pushed through this level on the way to 9.67, indicating strong conviction. On the daily chart, a larger move from 9.15 to 9.67 would place the 50% retracement at ~9.41, which acted as a support during the consolidation phase. Traders should watch for a potential pullback to 9.45-9.48 before the next potential move higher.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering a long position when ALCXUSDT closes above the 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart, provided RSI is above 50 and volume is rising. A stop-loss could be placed below the most recent 15-minute swing low, while the take-profit target could be set at the 61.8% Fibonacci extension of the current bullish move. This strategy aligns with the observed bullish momentum and confirms the technical setup described in this analysis.