Market Overview for Alchemix/Tether (ALCXUSDT)

Summary
• ALCXUSDT fell from $9.76 to $9.28, hitting a 24-hour low before recovering slightly to $9.32.
• Momentum turned bearish as RSI dropped below 50 and MACD crossed below the signal line.
• Volatility surged with a 24-hour turnover of $133,563.66 and volume peaking at 5260.244.

Opening Observations

Alchemix/Tether (ALCXUSDT) opened at $9.76 on 2025-11-11 at 12:00 ET and closed at $9.32 the following day. The price hit an intraday high of $9.76 and a low of $9.28, with a total 24-hour volume of 45,204.28 and a notional turnover of $133,563.66. The pair has shown clear bearish momentum and increased volatility over the period.

Structure & Formations

Price action shows a strong bearish bias, with a key support forming in the $9.25–$9.35 range and a critical resistance level between $9.65–$9.75. A notable bearish engulfing pattern emerged from $9.41 to $9.33, followed by a doji at $9.32–$9.32. These formations suggest hesitation and potential reversal or consolidation ahead if the price holds above $9.28.

Moving Averages & Bollinger Bands

On the 15-minute chart, the price has spent most of the session below both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, confirming a bearish bias. The 20-period MA sits at $9.46 and the 50-period MA at $9.49, indicating bearish alignment. Bollinger Bands show a widening expansion, with the price closing near the lower band on multiple occasions, signaling increased volatility and potential short-term rebounds.

Momentum & Volume Signals

Relative Strength Index (RSI) dipped below 50, reaching a 24-hour low of 42, signaling oversold conditions. Meanwhile, the MACD line crossed below the signal line with bearish divergence. Volume surged at key retracement levels, particularly around $9.45, confirming bearish conviction. However, a divergence appears in the latter part of the session where price recovered slightly while volume waned, hinting at potential bearish exhaustion.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent $9.76–$9.28 swing, the 61.8% retracement level sits at $9.47, which coincides with a key area of consolidation. Price bounced off this level multiple times, indicating strong psychological resistance. The 38.2% retracement is at $9.55, where the price briefly found rejection before resuming the downtrend. These levels may serve as critical turning points in the short term.

Backtest Hypothesis

To rigorously test a trading strategy based on the observed bearish signals and support/resistance dynamics, a clear backtest framework is essential. First, the universe should be limited to ALCXUSDT, given the focus on this pairing. A support level could be defined as the 20-period low, as it aligns with recent bearish divergence. Entry would occur on the next open after a Doji confirms consolidation at support, with exits based on a fixed 5-day holding period or a stop-loss at $9.25. Integrating such a framework would allow for systematic validation of the bearish outlook observed in today’s session.