Market Overview: Alchemix/Tether (ALCXUSDT) 24-Hour Summary as of 2025-09-20

• Price action formed a key consolidation range around 9.40, with a 1.5% range between daily highs and lows.
• Momentum indicators signaled overbought conditions near 9.52, followed by a pullback and oversold conditions below 9.34.
• Volatility expanded after the 5:00 AM ET breakout, with volume surging in the final 8 hours.
• A bullish 50/200 MA crossover formed in the last candle, suggesting a potential short-term reversal.
• A deep 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 9.45 acted as a critical support level during the consolidation phase.

Alchemix/Tether (ALCXUSDT) opened at 9.42 on 2025-09-19 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 9.52, a low of 9.32, and closed at 9.39 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-20. The 24-hour volume was 22,272.66 units, with a notional turnover of approximately $208,826 (based on 9.42 average price).

Price action over the 24 hours revealed a classic consolidation-bounce pattern, with a key bullish breakout occurring after 5:00 AM ET. A 20-period EMA crossed above the 50-period line in the final candle, signaling a potential short-term reversal. However, the 200-period MA at 9.47 remained above the current price, suggesting the long-term trend is still neutral-to-bullish. The RSI moved into overbought territory during the breakout before retreating into neutral territory, while the MACD histogram showed a divergence in bullish momentum.

Volatility expanded sharply in the early morning hours, with a 5-hour period from 5:00 AM to 10:00 AM ET showing significant price swings and volume spikes. The Bollinger Bands widened during the breakout, with price moving outside the upper band briefly at 9.52. A contraction in the bands followed as the price retested key support at 9.45, indicating a possible shift in trader sentiment from speculative to cautious.

A 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 9.45 held during the consolidation phase, followed by a test of 61.8% at 9.34 in the late afternoon. The price found a floor at 9.34–9.36 and closed near the 9.39 level, indicating potential for a short-term rebound. A bearish engulfing pattern was visible at 9.44–9.43, while a bullish hammer at 9.36–9.39 suggested possible reversal intent.

The backtesting strategy involves a dual EMA crossover (20/50) on the 15-minute chart, with confirmation from RSI and volume spikes. When a bullish crossover occurs and RSI remains above 50 with a surge in volume, a long entry is initiated. A stop-loss is placed below the recent swing low, with a target at the next Fibonacci level.