Market Overview: Alchemix/Tether (ALCXUSDT) 24-Hour Analysis

• ALCXUSDT declined by 7.14% in 24 hours, breaking below key support levels and forming a bearish engulfing pattern.
• Volatility expanded sharply after 19:30 ET, with price dropping from $7.58 to $7.34 in under 2.5 hours.
• RSI moved into oversold territory below 30, while MACD turned negative, indicating weakening momentum.
• Bollinger Bands widened, with price near the lower band at close, suggesting possible short-term bounce.
• Volume spiked during the 19:30–20:00 ET selloff, but failed to confirm a strong rebound, signaling bearish control.

At 12:00 ET–1 on 2025-10-29, Alchemix/Tether (ALCXUSDT) opened at $7.60 and moved within a range of $7.40–$7.62 over the next 24 hours, ultimately closing at $7.48 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-30. Total volume for the period was 45,884.05, with notional turnover reaching approximately $339,031. The price action reflects a strong bearish bias, with a notable bearish engulfing pattern forming on the 15-minute chart during the late ET session.

The structure of ALCXUSDT’s price movement over the 24-hour period reveals a clear breakdown from prior support levels. Key support levels tested and broken include $7.55, $7.45, and $7.40. The most impactful move occurred between 19:30 and 20:00 ET, where a candle gapped down from $7.58 to $7.49 and closed at $7.44, confirming a bearish reversal. A doji was also observed during the 19:45–20:00 ET timeframe, indicating indecision and exhaustion in the short-term bulls. The breakdown below $7.55 appears to have removed immediate technical barriers and could trigger further momentum toward the next support at $7.30–$7.25.

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average crossed below the 50-period line during the selloff, confirming the bearish shift. On the daily timeframe, the 50-day MA is above the 200-day MA, suggesting a longer-term bearish bias. MACD has turned negative and crossed below the signal line, signaling reduced buying pressure. RSI, which spent most of the 24 hours between 30 and 40, has now entered the oversold region, hinting at potential short-term rebounds. However, a sustained bounce would require a strong reversal candle or a break above $7.62, the previous high for the period.

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly as the price moved toward the lower band, with the 20-period band width reaching its widest point during the 19:30–20:00 ET timeframe. Price closing near the lower band suggests possible mean reversion in the near term, but with volume declining in the final 6 hours, there may not be enough conviction to confirm a strong bounce. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from the $7.55–$7.44 swing sits at $7.45, while the 38.2% level is at $7.48—coinciding with the current price level. A close above this level may offer short-term respite, but further confirmation will be needed to validate a bullish shift.

Backtest Hypothesis: The described backtesting strategy relies on identifying bullish engulfing patterns for entry and bearish engulfing signals for exit, using fixed risk management parameters. Given the bearish engulfing pattern formed during the 19:30–20:00 ET session on 2025-10-29, the strategy would have exited any existing long positions, potentially protecting capital from the subsequent selloff. The oversold RSI and the Fibonacci retracement level at $7.48 may provide a potential entry for a short-term reversal trade, aligning with the strategy’s exit and re-entry logic. However, the low volume in the final hours suggests reduced confidence in such a trade. The 30% take-profit and 12% stop-loss parameters could be tested if the price reacts to the $7.45–$7.48 consolidation level. Traders should monitor the next 24 hours for a break above $7.55 or below $7.40 to assess the strategy’s effectiveness in this context.