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Summary
• Price action shows bearish momentum with a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement keying support.
• Volatility remains contained within Bollinger Bands, with no significant expansion.
• Volume peaks during the early hours, but turnover lacks confirmation of strong conviction.
Alchemix/Tether (ALCXUSDT) opened at $7.82 on 2025-12-17, reaching a high of $7.91 before closing at $7.71 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-12-18. The 24-hour volume was 29,791.8511 ALCX, with a notional turnover of approximately $230,978.
Structure & Formations
Price action formed a bearish 5-wave structure, with a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $7.70–$7.72 appearing to hold as support. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged at 19:00 ET on 2025-12-17, followed by a long lower shadow doji at 01:00 ET the next day, suggesting indecision after a sharp decline.
Moving Averages
On the 5-minute chart, price traded below the 20- and 50-period moving averages, reinforcing short-term bearish bias. Daily moving averages (50/100/200) show no immediate crossover signals, indicating a neutral to slightly bearish mid-term trend.
MACD & RSI
The RSI reached oversold territory below 30 at 18:15 ET and briefly bounced, suggesting potential for a consolidation or minor recovery. MACD remained in negative territory with a narrowing histogram, pointing to weakening bearish momentum.
Bollinger Bands
Volatility remained moderate, with price oscillating within Bollinger Bands. A brief contraction occurred between 04:00 and 05:00 ET, followed by a minor expansion as price tested the lower band, hinting at possible short-term mean reversion.
Volume & Turnover
Volume spiked during the early hours, with a peak at 05:00 ET, but turnover remained subdued, indicating limited conviction in price moves. Divergence between volume and price suggests caution in interpreting bearish exhaustion.

The pair appears to be consolidating near key support levels, with a potential test of $7.65–$7.66 next.
Traders should remain cautious, as a breakdown below this range could trigger further declines. A reversal back above $7.80 would signal a return to neutral trading conditions.
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