Market Overview for Alchemix/Tether (ALCXUSDT) on 2025-11-14

Summary• ALCXUSDT opened at $16.28 and closed at $15.11 after 24 hours, with a high of $17.40 and low of $12.86.• Momentum weakened as RSI dropped below 30 and MACD turned bearish in the latter half of the day.• Volatility surged during the early part of the session, with Bollinger Band expansion visible.

Alchemix/Tether (ALCXUSDT) opened at $16.28 on 2025-11-13 at 12:00 ET and closed at $15.11 on 2025-11-14 at the same time, reaching a high of $17.40 and a low of $12.86. Total volume for the 24-hour window was 1,074,935.32, and total turnover (notional) was $15,710,980. The pair experienced a sharp bearish reversal in the final hours, with bearish candlestick patterns such as hammers and shooting stars indicating capitulation.

The structure of ALCXUSDT revealed a key support zone between $14.00 and $14.30, where the price found temporary respite during the recovery in the early morning hours. Resistance levels at $15.30 and $15.90 were tested and broken on multiple occasions. Notable bearish reversal patterns included a shooting star at $15.24 and a hanging man at $14.71, both signaling potential exhaustion in the short-term rally.

Bollinger Bands showed a marked expansion during the initial hours, especially between 18:00–22:00 ET, reflecting heightened volatility. The price closed below the 20-period moving average on the 15-minute chart, suggesting short-term bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period and 100-period moving averages crossed below the 200-period line, hinting at a longer-term downtrend.

Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropped below 30 in the last 6 hours of the session, indicating oversold conditions. However, the bearish MACD crossover from above to below the signal line around 02:00 ET confirmed a shift in momentum. Divergence was observed between price and turnover—while the price dropped sharply after 20:00 ET, turnover decreased, suggesting reduced conviction in the bearish move.

Fibonacci retracement levels were applied to the key $12.86–$17.40 swing. The 61.8% retracement level (~$14.75) was tested twice and provided some support. The 38.2% level (~$15.27) acted as resistance earlier in the session before the price broke through.

ALCXUSDT may continue testing key support zones in the next 24 hours, with potential for a rebound if $14.00 holds. Traders should watch for a break above $15.30 as a bullish trigger, though bearish continuation is probable if $14.00 is breached.

Backtest Hypothesis
The backtesting strategy described relies on key price action triggers in conjunction with RSI divergence and moving average crossovers. A long entry could be considered if ALCXUSDT retests the $14.00–$14.30 support with RSI showing positive divergence. Alternatively, a short trade may be initiated if $14.00 is broken decisively with confirmation from the 20-period moving average crossing below price action. Both conditions have historically yielded favorable risk-reward setups when paired with volume confirmation.