Market Overview for Alchemix/Tether (ALCXUSDT) as of 2025-10-03

• ALCXUSDT rose from $8.79 to $9.02 before consolidating near $8.89, showing a volatile 24-hour range of $0.24.
• Momentum shifted multiple times, with RSI peaking near overbought and dipping into oversold, suggesting a potential reversal.
• Volume and turnover increased during key price levels, confirming short-term support and resistance areas.
• Bollinger Bands showed a period of contraction before the last rally, hinting at a breakout potential.
• A 15-minute doji and bearish engulfing pattern emerged near $9.01, signaling possible bearish pressure.

At 12:00 ET–1 on 2025-10-02, ALCXUSDT opened at $8.79, reached a high of $9.02, and closed at $8.89 by 12:00 ET on 2025-10-03, within a 24-hour range of $8.78 to $9.05. Total volume amounted to 20,034.83 ALCX and notional turnover was approximately $176,755.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bullish pattern around 19:30 ET–1, with a candle closing near its high, suggesting initial buying pressure. However, a bearish engulfing candle appeared near $9.01 at 00:15 ET, indicating a potential reversal. A doji at 00:45 ET further confirmed indecision, with key support at $8.90 and resistance at $9.01 becoming notable.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price crossed above the 20-period and 50-period moving averages during the 19:00–20:30 ET–1 rally. The 50-period line provided temporary support near $8.95. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA remains above the 100- and 200-period lines, signaling a mixed trend.

MACD & RSI

MACD remained positive during the rally, with a narrowing histogram suggesting fading momentum. RSI peaked near 72 before correcting to ~55, showing that buying pressure may have abated. A bearish crossover in MACD at 00:15 ET–1 aligned with the bearish engulfing pattern, hinting at short-term bearish pressure.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility remained elevated throughout the 24-hour period, with price frequently touching the upper and lower bands. A contraction occurred between 21:00 and 23:00 ET–1, followed by a breakout toward the upper band. This suggests a potential continuation of the bullish trend, but the bearish engulfing pattern may counteract this.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 19:00–20:30 ET–1 rally and again around the bearish engulfing pattern, confirming key price levels. Notional turnover increased during these moves, aligning with price action. A divergence between volume and price near the 00:15 ET–1 candle suggests weakening momentum.

Fibonacci Retracements

A 15-minute swing from $8.78 to $9.02 saw price retest the 61.8% level at $8.92–8.93, finding moderate resistance. The daily move showed a retest of the 38.2% level at $8.90–8.95, which held as support early but failed under bearish pressure. This reinforces $8.90 as a critical area for near-term direction.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed price behavior—particularly the bearish engulfing pattern and RSI divergence—a potential backtesting strategy could involve a short entry at the close of the bearish engulfing candle with a stop above the upper band of the Bollinger Band and a target near the 61.8% Fibonacci retrace level. This strategy would aim to capture the immediate bearish bias while using clear technical levels as risk controls.