Market Overview for Alchemix/Tether (ALCXUSDT) on 2025-09-14

• Alchemix/Tether (ALCXUSDT) dropped 7.8% from its 24-hour high of $10.20 to a low of $9.73 by 12:00 ET.
• A bearish engulfing pattern and strong volume divergence suggest short-term bearish momentum.
• Volatility expanded after a 15-minute breakout, with price closing below a key 10.03 support level.
• RSI crossed into oversold territory, hinting at potential near-term buying interest.

Opening Summary

Alchemix/Tether (ALCXUSDT) opened at $9.97 on 2025-0913 12:00 ET, peaked at $10.20, and closed at $9.73 by 12:00 ET. Total volume reached 20,656.36 ALCX, with notional turnover of $203,333. The pair experienced significant volatility and volume spikes after 20:00 ET as bearish momentum accelerated.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour period revealed multiple key levels and formations. A strong bearish engulfing candle formed around 05:00 ET, confirming a shift in sentiment after a short-lived bullish attempt. A large doji at $10.16 signaled indecision near the 10.08–10.16 resistance cluster. Price later tested the 10.03 support and failed, with a subsequent breakdown to $9.73 suggesting a broader bearish bias.

Moving Averages and MACD/RSI

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA and 50SMA crossed bearishly, confirming the recent downtrend. The MACD histogram turned negative around 19:00 ET and remained below the signal line, reinforcing bearish momentum. RSI plunged to 28 by 12:00 ET, entering oversold territory and potentially indicating near-term stabilizing pressure.

Bollinger Bands and Volume Dynamics

Volatility expanded after 20:00 ET, with price breaking below the lower Bollinger Band and remaining outside it, signaling strong bearish conviction. Volume spiked during the 20:00–20:15 ET candle, where price dropped from $10.16 to $10.07, followed by a sharp decline below $10.00. Notional turnover increased in tandem with price declines, confirming the bearish move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels were visible on the 15-minute swing from $10.01 to $10.17, with the 61.8% retracement at $10.07 marking a significant psychological level. The daily swing from $10.20 to $9.73 shows 38.2% at $9.96, which was briefly tested but failed as a support. The failure to hold at 10.03 now exposes the next support at $9.90.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy for ALCXUSDT could involve entering a short position on a close below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $10.07, confirmed by a bearish engulfing pattern. A stop-loss could be placed above the 10.13–10.15 resistance zone, with a target of $9.90 as the next key support. This strategy aligns with the observed bearish divergence in volume and RSI, offering a defined risk-reward profile for traders seeking to capitalize on short-term bearish continuation.