Market Overview for AIXBTUSDT on 2025-09-24

• Price action shows a moderate bearish bias amid mixed momentum signals.
• Volatility expanded after 03:30 ET with a sharp drop to 0.0953, followed by a rebound.
• Turnover spiked during the 04:15–04:45 ET range, aligning with the low point and recovery.
• No definitive reversal patterns emerged, but a bearish engulfing candle appeared at 19:45 ET.
• RSI entered oversold territory around 04:45 ET, but failed to trigger a strong rebound.

AIXBT/Tether (AIXBTUSDT) opened at 0.0998 on 2025-09-23 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.0991 on 2025-09-24 at 12:00 ET, with a high of 0.1009 and a low of 0.0938. Total volume amounted to 57.13 million, and turnover reached $5.54 million.

The 24-hour candlestick chart reveals a distinct two-part pattern: a sharp bearish leg from 19:45 to 04:45 ET, followed by a partial recovery. The price action suggests a test of a key support level near 0.095–0.096, where volume increased significantly. A key bearish engulfing pattern appeared at 19:45 ET, indicating a potential shift in sentiment. However, the subsequent rebound failed to breach key resistances above 0.0995, suggesting buyers may be cautious.

Moving averages show the price oscillating below the 20- and 50-period 15-minute MAs for most of the session, confirming a short-term bearish bias. The 50-period MA crossed below the 100- and 200-period MAs on a daily chart, hinting at potential bearish momentum in the near term. The RSI dropped below 30 during the early morning, reaching an oversold level, while the MACD showed a bearish crossover during the bearish phase but failed to provide a strong follow-through signal.

Bollinger Bands widened significantly after the price reached its low at 04:15 ET, reflecting increased volatility. The price rebounded from the lower band but did not exceed the middle band, suggesting limited upside conviction. Volume and turnover diverged during the recovery phase, with volume declining despite price rising slightly. This divergence may indicate a lack of buying interest and could signal a potential pullback.

The Fibonacci retracement levels from the recent 0.0938 low to the 0.0998 high indicate key levels to watch: 38.2% at 0.0963 and 61.8% at 0.0978. The price briefly tested the 61.8% level before pulling back, suggesting this could be a key support/resistance threshold in the near term. The 38.2% level, currently at 0.0963, appears to have some buying pressure behind it but may not hold if bears continue to dominate.

Looking ahead, AIXBTUSDT may face renewed bearish pressure if the 0.0963 level breaks, with a possible target at the 0.0950 psychological level. A close above 0.0995 could signal a short-term reversal, but the overall bias remains cautiously bearish. Investors should monitor the RSI for signs of overbought conditions and watch for volume confirmation during any potential rally.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy involves entering a short position when a bearish engulfing pattern forms on the 15-minute chart, confirmed by a close below the 50-period MA and a bearish MACD crossover. The stop-loss would be placed above the high of the engulfing candle, with a target at the next Fibonacci retracement level or a key support. A long entry could be triggered by a bullish engulfing pattern with RSI above 40 and volume increasing on the recovery. Historical data from the past 24 hours suggest that such a strategy may yield positive results in trending conditions but may struggle during consolidation or false breakouts.