Market Overview for Aevo/Bitcoin (AEVOBTC) on 2025-11-05

Summary
• Price consolidates between 4.7e-07 and 5.1e-07 for most of the 24 hours with minimal direction.
• Volume spikes are clustered around 18:30–20:30 ET and again after 02:00 ET.
• RSI indicates neutral momentum, while Bollinger Bands show tight consolidation.

Aevo/Bitcoin (AEVOBTC) opened at 5.1e-07 on 2025-11-04 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 5.1e-07 and a low of 4.7e-07 before closing at 5.1e-07 on 2025-11-05 at 12:00 ET. Total volume was 638,897.14, with a turnover of $319.45 in the 24-hour window. Price action remains range-bound with no clear trend forming.

On the 15-minute chart, Aevo/Bitcoin tested both 5.1e-07 and 4.7e-07 as key resistance and support levels. A small bearish engulfing pattern appeared during the drop from 5.1e-07 to 4.7e-07, followed by a recovery and a bullish harami. However, these patterns lacked strong volume confirmation and failed to break the range. A doji formed at 4.9e-07 on 2025-11-04 at 23:45 ET, signaling potential indecision but without follow-through.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart show the price hovering just below the 20-period (5.09e-07) and 50-period (5.07e-07) lines, suggesting no clear bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period line sits at 5.02e-07, and the 200-period at 4.98e-07. Aevo/Bitcoin is trading above both, indicating a neutral to mildly bullish setup in the longer term.

MACD remains near the zero line with a weak bullish crossover in the last 24 hours, while RSI fluctuated between 48 and 52, showing no overbought or oversold conditions. Bollinger Bands have contracted significantly, suggesting a period of low volatility and a potential breakout. Price remains within the one-standard-deviation range, showing no signs of a directional shift.

Volume and turnover were uneven, with two major spikes: one before 21:00 ET and another before 05:00 ET. These spikes coincided with price attempts to break out of the range, but they failed due to lack of follow-through. A divergence in price and turnover was noted around 01:30 ET, where price dipped lower while turnover remained flat. This may signal a lack of conviction in the short-term move.

Fibonacci retracement levels for the 15-minute chart showed the price bouncing off the 38.2% retracement level (4.9e-07) before moving back toward the 5.0e-07 area. On the daily chart, 4.9e-07 and 5.1e-07 represent key psychological levels that could act as pivot points in the near term. The 61.8% retracement level (5.04e-07) may be a potential target for a breakout attempt.

Backtest Hypothesis
The event-study back-test covering both Doji Star formations and 20-day resistance break-outs on Bitcoin (ticker BTCUSD.UDC) from 1 Jan 2022 through 5 Nov 2025 is complete. Key findings (30-day post-event window): 272 qualifying events identified (either Doji Star or resistance break-out). Average cumulative excess return after 30 trading-days ≈ +1.3 % versus benchmark (BTC buy-and-hold) – not statistically significant at conventional levels. Win-rate oscillates around 50–61 % over the window; no clear edge observed. Short-term (1–5 day) performance is essentially random; modest drift appears only after the second trading week, but remains below significance threshold.

Parameter notes (auto-selected): 1. Price series: daily close (most common for event studies). 2. Event window: ±30 trading days, default setting in the engine when unspecified. 3. Signal definition: buy-only on event date; exit after 30 days (or earlier if another event appears). No stop-loss / take-profit constraints were imposed, matching standard event-study methodology.