Market Overview for AdEx/Bitcoin (ADXBTC) – October 26, 2025

• ADXBTC remains tightly range-bound near 9.0000e-7 with minimal price movement and low volume.
• A small bearish close at 9.5000e-7 marks the 24-hour high, though momentum remains neutral with RSI near 50.
• Volatility dipped during the overnight session, with Bollinger Bands contracting slightly.
• A brief volume spike in the early morning ET coincided with a minor price rally but lacked follow-through.
• No clear candlestick patterns formed, but a potential 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level looms at 9.3200e-7.

At 12:00 ET on October 26, 2025, ADXBTC opened at 9.0000e-7 and traded between 8.9000e-7 and 9.5000e-7 over the 24-hour period. The price closed at 9.5000e-7 at 12:00 ET, with total trading volume amounting to 606,135.0 and notional turnover remaining negligible due to the low price level. The pair remained within a narrow band, with no significant breakouts or trend formation visible.

The 15-minute chart shows a lack of directionality, with price action confined between 8.9000e-7 and 9.5000e-7. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages are nearly overlapping, reinforcing the sideways bias. A potential support level appears to be forming near 9.0000e-7, with a minor 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 9.3200e-7 offering resistance to the upside. The absence of a clear trend is further underscored by a flat RSI hovering around 50, suggesting equilibrium between buyers and sellers.

Volatility remained subdued throughout the period, with Bollinger Bands contracting slightly during the overnight hours and expanding modestly in the early morning ET. The price closed near the upper band in the 15-minute time frame during the breakout attempt to 9.5000e-7, indicating some short-term optimism, though the move failed to gain lasting traction. The volume profile showed a minor spike in the early morning ET session but otherwise remained flat, with no clear divergence between price and volume.

While no strong candlestick patterns emerged, a brief bearish close at 9.4000e-7 during the afternoon ET suggested a minor test of the 9.3000e-7 level. However, the price rebounded quickly without forming a distinct reversal pattern. The MACD histogram remained flat, confirming the lack of momentum in either direction. For the next 24 hours, a break above 9.5000e-7 or below 9.0000e-7 could signal a shift in market sentiment, though the current conditions suggest continued consolidation. Investors should remain cautious of liquidity dry spells and potential false breakouts in the range-bound environment.

Backtest Hypothesis: To construct a rigorous back-test, I need to confirm two key points:
1. Instrument: The analysis pertains to the crypto pair AdEx/Bitcoin (ADXBTC), not the Nasdaq stock.
2. Resistance Level Definition: For this test, I will define the “Resistance Level” as the first close above the prior 20-day high on the 15-minute chart, as this is a common and meaningful event in intraday technical analysis.

Using this definition, I will pull the necessary ADXBTC data and generate event dates where the resistance level was breached. The back-test will evaluate the average post-event price behavior, including mean return, volatility, and holding period performance, over the period from 2022-01-01 to 2025-10-26. The results will help assess whether a breakout above the 20-day high on the 15-minute chart historically signals a continuation or a reversal pattern in this pair.