Market Overview for AdEx/Bitcoin (ADXBTC): 24-Hour Breakdown

• Price declined from 1.03e-06 to 8.1e-07, forming a bearish trend with weak volume.
• RSI indicated oversold conditions, suggesting potential for a short-term rebound.
• Volatility remained low with Bollinger Bands in contraction, signaling consolidation.
• No strong bullish candlestick patterns emerged, while bearish pressure persisted.
• Turnover dropped sharply in early hours, with low trading activity during the 24-hour period.

AdEx/Bitcoin (ADXBTC) opened at 8.9e-07 on 2025-10-11 at 16:00 ET and closed at 8.1e-07 the next day at 12:00 ET. The pair reached a high of 1.03e-06 and a low of 8.1e-07 during the 24-hour window. Total volume traded was 9.55 million, with a notional turnover of approximately $7.85.

The structure of the 15-minute chart shows a steady bearish bias throughout the day. A key support level appears at 8.1e-07, where price found multiple bids. Resistance is visible at 8.8e-07, where selling pressure emerged. A potential bearish engulfing pattern formed around 19:30 ET, signaling further downside potential. The formation of small-bodied candles during the consolidation phase suggests uncertainty and lack of conviction among traders.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart both remained bearish, with the 50-period line sitting above the 20-period line. Price action remained below both, reinforcing the downtrend. On the daily chart, the 50, 100, and 200-period moving averages are in a bearish alignment, with the 200-period line acting as a major bearish reference.

MACD indicators on both timeframes showed bearish momentum, with the histogram staying negative and declining. The RSI on the 15-minute chart dipped into oversold territory, suggesting potential for a near-term rebound. However, the RSI on the daily chart remains in a lower range, indicating a sustained bearish trend. Bollinger Bands showed a contraction phase in the early morning hours, pointing to a potential breakout or breakdown in the near term, with price resting near the lower band.

The volume profile highlights significant inactivity in the early and late hours, with only a few spikes during the midday hours. Price and volume diverged at around 20:00 ET, where price moved lower while volume remained subdued. This suggests a lack of conviction among sellers. Turnover remained below average for most of the day, with a minor uptick in the late evening as the price approached key support levels.

Fibonacci retracements for the 15-minute chart highlight 8.2e-07 as a 38.2% retracement level and 8.1e-07 as a 61.8% retracement level. Both levels acted as support during the session. On the daily chart, the 61.8% Fibonacci level remains a critical price threshold, below which a deeper correction could occur.

Backtest Hypothesis
A potential backtesting strategy for ADXBTC could focus on entries triggered by RSI entering oversold territory while price remains below the 50-period moving average. This setup could be combined with a Fibonacci retracement filter to target short-term bounces off key support levels. Stop-loss placement could be set below the nearest support (e.g., 8.1e-07) and take-profit levels aligned with minor Fibonacci levels. The low volatility and consistent bearish trend make this a high-probability setup for short-term traders, though it remains subject to sudden shifts if volume or momentum indicators strengthen.