Market Overview for AdEx/Bitcoin (ADXBTC) – 2025-10-10

• Price action showed a bearish trend, closing near the session low with no strong reversal signs.
• RSI and MACD confirmed weakening momentum, with RSI dipping toward oversold levels.
• Volume remained muted during the 24-hour period, lacking confirmation for a strong move.
• Bollinger Bands showed a moderate contraction, suggesting potential for a breakout in either direction.
• Fibonacci retracement levels at 61.8% appeared to act as a temporary floor, with limited bounce strength.

AdEx/Bitcoin (ADXBTC) opened at $0.00000091 (12:00 ET−1) and traded between $0.00000086 and $0.00000098 before closing at $0.00000089 (12:00 ET). Total traded volume amounted to 1.34 million USD, with a notional turnover of $0.00000089 million. Price action remained bearish, with no signs of reversal on the 15-minute chart.

Structure & Formations

Price action displayed a consistent bearish drift throughout the session, with no clear reversal patterns emerging. A long lower shadow was noted on the early morning candle, but it failed to confirm a bullish turnaround. A doji formed around 03:45 ET, suggesting indecision at that point. Key support appeared to be forming near $0.00000086–$0.00000087, where price bounced twice. Resistance was evident between $0.00000092 and $0.00000098, with multiple failed attempts to break through.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages trended downward, with price staying below both. The 50-period MA acted as a resistance on several occasions. Looking at daily data, the 50-period and 200-period moving averages are converging lower, reinforcing the short-term bearish bias.

MACD & RSI

MACD showed a negative histogram with a bearish crossover, confirming the downward trend. The RSI dropped into oversold territory, dipping below 30 in the latter part of the session. However, no strong bounce followed, suggesting the decline might not be over. RSI remains below 50, reinforcing the bearish momentum.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed moderate volatility with a slight contraction during the midday hours, indicating potential for a breakout. Price remained near the lower band for most of the session, especially after 12:00 ET. A break above the upper band would signal a bullish reversal, but given the current momentum, a downward move remains more probable.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was unevenly distributed, with spikes observed between 20:00 ET and 04:00 ET. Notional turnover remained low, with price and volume diverging during the late morning hours. A lack of buying pressure during price rallies suggests a bearish bias, with buyers stepping back after failed attempts to push higher.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent 15-minute swing, the 61.8% level at $0.00000087–$0.00000086 appeared to provide temporary support. Daily retracements showed similar behavior, with the 61.8% level aligning with current price levels. A break below that support could lead to a test of the 78.6% level at $0.00000083–$0.00000082.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the current bearish momentum and the RSI reaching oversold levels without a strong bounce, a potential backtest strategy could involve a short bias with a stop-loss above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. A trailing stop could be placed below each swing low. The MACD histogram remains negative, and the convergence of moving averages suggests continuation of the trend. This hypothesis aligns with the observed price behavior and could be tested in a strategy that prioritizes trend-following during low volatility conditions.