Market Overview for AdEx/Bitcoin (ADXBTC) on 2025-10-09

• ADXBTC traded in a tight range for most of the session before spiking higher near the end.
• Price closed above key resistance at 8.6e-07, with volume surging during the breakout.
• Volatility expanded significantly in the final hours, with a large bullish candle at 9.5e-07.
• RSI entered overbought territory, suggesting potential for a near-term pullback.
• Bollinger Bands showed a contraction earlier, followed by a sharp expansion, confirming a breakout.

AdEx/Bitcoin (ADXBTC) opened at 8.4e-07 on 2025-10-08 at 16:00 ET and closed at 9.5e-07 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-09. The pair reached a high of 1.11e-06 and a low of 8.3e-07. The total volume across the 24-hour period was 1.975 million ADX, and the total turnover was approximately 1.89 Bitcoin.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick pattern over the 24-hour period displayed a strong bullish reversal formation, particularly in the final hours of the session. A large bullish candle closed near the high of the period, indicating a breakout above key resistance at 8.6e-07 and 9.5e-07. This formation suggests a possible shift in sentiment, with price likely to test the next resistance at 9.8e-07 and beyond. A doji near the open and consolidation in the morning hinted at indecision, but the late-day volume confirmed a breakout in favor of buyers.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price has moved above both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, indicating a short-term bullish trend. The 20SMA crossed above the 50SMA in the late hours of the session, forming a golden cross. On the daily timeframe, the price remains above the 50DMA but is approaching the 200DMA, which could act as a potential support level in the event of a pullback.

MACD & RSI

The MACD showed a bullish crossover in the final hours of the session, with the line crossing above the signal line and forming positive divergences. RSI reached levels above 70, signaling overbought conditions. While this typically precedes a correction, it may also indicate strong conviction in the current upward move, depending on whether volume supports further gains or signals a reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility remained low for most of the session, with Bollinger Bands constricting as price traded in a tight range around 8.5e-07. However, a sharp expansion occurred in the final hours as price broke out above the upper band, confirming a breakout. Price is currently sitting near the upper band, suggesting continued bullish momentum, but caution is advised as overbought readings may attract profit-taking.

Volume & Turnover

Trading volume remained relatively low during the early part of the session but spiked sharply in the final hours, particularly between 14:00 ET and 16:00 ET, when the price surged above 9.5e-07. The total turnover also rose in line with the price action, confirming the strength of the move. Notably, price and turnover aligned in the final hours, indicating a genuine breakout rather than a false move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent 15-minute swing from 8.3e-07 to 1.11e-06, the 61.8% retracement level sits near 9.8e-07, which appears to be a critical resistance zone. On the daily chart, the 50% and 61.8% retracements align with key support and resistance levels from earlier in the year, suggesting that these levels may see significant action in the coming days.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent breakout and confirmed momentum from RSI and MACD, a potential backtest strategy could focus on a long bias triggered by a close above the 9.5e-07 level with a trailing stop just below the 8.6e-07 support. This setup aligns with the golden cross on the 15-minute timeframe and the bullish divergence in the MACD, offering a high-probability trade based on both trend and momentum confirmation.