Market Overview for AdEx/Bitcoin (ADXBTC) as of 2025-09-21

• Price action was range-bound with limited 15-min volatility, capped by 1.07e-06 and floored by 1.05e-06.
• No significant candlestick patterns emerged, with the majority of candles closing near previous levels.
• Volume was muted and inconsistent, with no clear momentum seen in either direction.
• Turnover remained stable, with no divergences between price and volume.
• RSI and MACD showed no overbought or oversold conditions, signaling consolidation.

At 12:00 ET–1, AdEx/Bitcoin (ADXBTC) opened at 1.05e-06, reached a high of 1.07e-06, and a low of 1.05e-06, closing at 1.05e-06 at 12:00 ET. Over the past 24 hours, total volume traded was 289,499.0, while turnover amounted to approximately 148.84 BTC (based on weighted averages). The market remained tightly confined, with no clear directional bias.

Structure & Formations:
The price action remained within a tight range between 1.05e-06 and 1.07e-06 over the 24-hour period. A few isolated attempts to break out occurred, such as a 15-minute candle at 16:15 ET reaching 1.07e-06 and another at 09:30 ET briefly testing the same level. These moves failed to gain traction, with prices retreating quickly. No distinct candlestick patterns such as engulfing or doji emerged, indicating a lack of conviction from buyers or sellers. Key support appears to be 1.05e-06, and resistance remains at 1.07e-06, which has repeatedly failed to hold.

Moving Averages:
The 20 and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart are indistinguishable given the flat price action. On a daily chart, the 50, 100, and 200-period averages would likely be closely aligned, indicating a neutral market. There is no meaningful deviation from these averages, suggesting a continuation of range-bound behavior in the near term.

MACD & RSI:
The MACD histogram and line remained flat, with no clear divergence or convergence, indicating a lack of momentum. RSI hovered around 50, suggesting that the market is neither overbought nor oversold. These indicators suggest a lack of directional bias and continued consolidation within the defined range.

Bollinger Bands:
Volatility remained compressed, with the Bollinger Bands narrowing over the past 24 hours. Price has stayed near the centerline for most of the period, indicating a low-volatility environment. There have been no signs of a pending expansion or breakout, and price appears to be comfortably within the bands without touching the outer limits.

Volume & Turnover:
Trading volume was erratic, with several 15-minute intervals reporting zero volume. The highest volume spike occurred at 09:30 ET, with a 37,200.0 unit trade pushing the price from 1.07e-06 back to 1.06e-06. Turnover followed a similar profile, with no significant increase in notional value. The lack of volume suggests a lack of strong conviction and could indicate a continuation of the range-bound behavior.

Fibonacci Retracements:
Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent 15-minute swing (1.05e-06 to 1.07e-06), the 38.2% and 61.8% levels are at 1.06e-06 and 1.05e-06, respectively. Price has frequently tested 1.06e-06, and 1.05e-06 has held as a key support level. No clear Fibonacci-based structure has emerged for the daily chart due to minimal price movement.

Backtest Hypothesis:
The proposed backtesting strategy relies on the detection of key support and resistance levels using a combination of Fibonacci retracements and volume-based triggers. The strategy would initiate a long position when the price breaks above the 61.8% Fibonacci level on the 15-minute chart and confirms with a follow-through in volume. Conversely, it would trigger a short when the price breaks below the 38.2% level with increasing volume. Given the current flat price action and lack of volume confirmation, the strategy would likely remain inactive. However, if the 1.07e-06 resistance level breaks with significant volume in the near term, the strategy could become active, signaling a potential breakout trade. The flat RSI and MACD suggest that such an event is not imminent.