Market Overview for ADAJPY (Cardano/Yen)

Summary
• ADAJPY surged 2.4% over 24 hours, forming bullish continuation patterns.
• Key support tested at 89.08 with price closing above 90.0 on strong volume.
• RSI reached neutral zone, MACD bullish divergence suggests momentum.
• Volatility expanded with Bollinger Band widening, hinting at potential breakouts.
• Volume surged in late ET hours, confirming strength in upward move.

Cardano/Yen (ADAJPY) opened at 89.57 on 2025-11-10 12:00 ET, touched a high of 93.72, and settled at 89.26 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-11-11. Total 24-hour volume was 1,438,835.1, and turnover reached $132,986,500, indicating strong market activity.

Price action showed a clear bullish momentum, with multiple engulfing patterns and a strong break above key resistance near 91.26. A 15-minute chart displayed a breakout above a descending trendline, suggesting a potential continuation. The 20 and 50-period SMAs were in bullish alignment, with the price closing above both.

Moving Averages and Momentum

The 20 and 50-period SMAs on the 15-minute chart remained bullish, with price above both lines. The 50-period line crossed above the 20-period, forming a golden cross. The MACD histogram showed a broadening positive divergence, suggesting increasing buying pressure. RSI moved from overbought territory to the neutral range (55-65), indicating a potential consolidation phase after the sharp rally.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands displayed a recent widening, especially after 19:30 ET, reflecting increased volatility. Price closed near the upper band at one point, then retested the middle band at 91.47. This volatility expansion may signal a potential continuation or a correction, with support near 89.18 and resistance at 92.12.

Volume and Turnover

Volume surged notably during the rally from 19:30 to 01:30 ET, peaking at 140,535.3 units as price hit a high of 93.72. This confirms the strength of the upward move. However, a divergence in volume occurred after 05:00 ET as price pulled back, suggesting some profit-taking.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracements on the 15-minute chart showed that the price retested the 61.8% level (91.34) before breaking above. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement (91.86) acted as a support, indicating strong bullish momentum from a broader perspective.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy leverages bearish engulfing patterns to trigger short-term exits, aligning with the observed bearish divergence in the RSI and MACD as price corrected after 05:00 ET. This rule-based approach, combined with stop-loss and take-profit thresholds, provides a structured method for managing risk in a volatile asset like ADAJPY. The test yielded a total return of ~24.2%, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.67, suggesting moderate risk-adjusted returns.