Market Overview for ADAJPY on 2025-10-30

• ADAJPY opened at 97.7 and closed at 93.09, with a 24-hour high of 100.72 and low of 95.0.
• Price formed a bearish breakdown from a key resistance near 100.0, confirming a shift in sentiment.
• Momentum weakened as RSI dipped below 30, suggesting oversold conditions and potential near-term rebound.
• Volatility expanded, with Bollinger Bands widening following a sharp selloff around 04:30 ET.
• Volume surged during the selloff, reinforcing the bearish move but with some divergences in notional turnover.

Market Opening and 24-Hour Range

Cardano/Yen (ADAJPY) opened at 97.7 on October 29 at 12:00 ET and closed at 93.09 by 12:00 ET on October 30. The pair reached a high of 100.72 and a low of 95.0 during the 24-hour period. Total volume amounted to 2,873,882.7, with notional turnover estimated at $279.4 million (assuming ADAJPY = ADA/JPY, and based on approximate ADA price). The price declined by 4.71 points or ~4.82%, indicating a bearish sentiment.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart shows a clear breakdown from the 100.0 psychological level after a short-lived rally above 100.3. A significant bearish engulfing pattern emerged around 20:30 ET, confirming the reversal. Price then accelerated downward, forming a strong bearish trendline from 100.72 to 95.0. Key support levels appear at 95.0 and 93.09, with the former acting as a short-term floor and the latter as a potential near-term stop for further declines. The 100.0 level now appears as a critical psychological resistance for any near-term bounce.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both crossed below key swing highs, reinforcing the bearish momentum. On a daily basis, the 50-period MA is at ~99.2, with the 100-period and 200-period MAs at ~98.5 and ~98.1, respectively. These levels may act as dynamic resistance zones for any countertrend rallies.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed below the zero line and remains bearish, with the histogram showing a consistent contraction. RSI dropped below 30 into oversold territory around 05:00 ET, suggesting potential for a near-term bounce. However, the lack of bullish momentum divergence implies that a recovery may be limited unless volume confirms it.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly between 04:00 and 06:00 ET, with the upper band at ~100.3 and the lower band at ~96.8. Price closed at 93.09, well below the lower band, signaling extreme weakness. A pullback toward the lower band could offer entry points for short-term traders looking to capture a potential bounce.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the 100.72–95.0 swing, key levels include 98.17 (23.6%), 96.79 (38.2%), and 95.66 (61.8%). Price is currently near 93.09, slightly below 61.8% retracement, which may act as a short-term floor. If price holds above 93.09, a bounce toward 95.66 or even 96.79 is possible in the next 24–48 hours.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the breakdown phase, especially between 04:30 and 06:00 ET, where total volume surged past 185,000. Turnover also followed the price action closely, with no significant divergence observed. The lack of divergence suggests the bearish momentum is still intact. However, volume has cooled off in the last 15 minutes, which may indicate a short-term pause.

Backtest Hypothesis

To refine the backtest for ADAJPY, a synthetic ADAJPY series could be constructed by combining ADA-USD and USD-JPY data, as the native ADAJPY ticker is not currently available on the data source. This cross-rate approximation would allow for accurate detection of candlestick patterns such as Bullish Engulfing, especially on key reversals from oversold levels like the one observed today. By applying this methodology, we can validate the reliability of such patterns in capturing short-term turning points, which could then be used to build a rule-based strategy for automated trading or manual trading signals. The synthetic approach ensures that the backtest remains representative of the actual pair’s behavior, given the close correlation between ADA-USD and USD-JPY.