Market Overview for Act I : The AI Prophecy/Tether USDt (ACTUSDT)

• Price declined from 0.0391 to 0.038, with bearish momentum seen in lower highs and lower closes.
• RSI and MACD suggest weakening momentum, with RSI hovering near overbought/oversold thresholds.
• Volatility spiked during the early hours of 2025-09-10, with volume peaking at over 3 million.
• Bollinger Bands show price trading near the lower band, indicating bearish pressure.
• A key support zone formed around 0.0379–0.0381, where price has bounced and reversed multiple times.

At 12:00 ET−1 on 2025-09-10, the price of ACTUSDT opened at 0.0389 and reached a high of 0.0391 before declining through the day. By 12:00 ET on 2025-09-11, it closed at 0.038. Total 24-hour trading volume was 30.1 million, with a notional turnover of $1.2 million.

Structure & Formations

The price of ACTUSDT formed a descending pattern over the past 24 hours, with a key bearish pivot forming around 0.0385–0.0387. The market appears to have found short-term support near 0.0379–0.0381, where price has tested multiple times and reversed. A doji pattern formed near 0.038 around 03:00 ET on 2025-09-11, suggesting indecision and potential reversal.

Key Levels

Support levels to watch include 0.038 (tested multiple times) and 0.0375–0.0377 (lower range-bound support). Resistance is likely near 0.0385–0.0387 and 0.0389–0.0391.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA and 50SMA crossed below the price during the late hours of 2025-09-10, signaling bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50DMA and 200DMA crossed below the price, reinforcing the bearish bias.

MACD & RSI

MACD showed a bearish crossover with the signal line crossing above the histogram, suggesting weakening momentum. RSI moved into oversold territory near 30 but failed to bounce decisively, indicating bearish exhaustion may not be immediate.

The price traded near the lower Bollinger Band for much of the session, with volatility increasing as the band expanded. A contraction in the band occurred around 02:00–04:00 ET, followed by a sharp price move downward. This suggests that the market may be consolidating before a potential breakout.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the 2025-09-10 high of 0.0391 and the low of 0.0379, 38.2% retrace came in at 0.0384, and 61.8% at 0.0385. The price has bounced from these levels, suggesting they act as short-term supports and resistances.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply around 19:45 ET and again at 07:45 ET, coinciding with bearish price moves. Notional turnover peaked at over $30,000 during these periods, confirming bearish sentiment. However, volume declined sharply after 08:00 ET, which may indicate waning bearish pressure.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve entering a short position when price closes below the 50SMA on the 15-minute chart, with a stop-loss placed above the recent swing high. Given the recent bearish momentum and confirmed support at 0.0379–0.0381, a target near 0.0375 could be tested. This strategy would be supported by the RSI indicating oversold conditions and the price sitting near the lower Bollinger Band.