Market Overview for Act I : The AI Prophecy/Tether (ACTUSDT) - October 6, 2025

• Price action saw a key rebound and retesting of prior support levels during the early hours, followed by a consolidation phase.
• Momentum indicators suggest potential overbought conditions in the latter half of the session, but volume failed to confirm.
• Volatility expanded during the 18:00–20:00 ET range, signaling short-term uncertainty before narrowing again.
• A bullish engulfing pattern emerged at 06:30 ET, followed by a bearish reversal at 09:45 ET, indicating mixed sentiment.

The price of Act I : The AI Prophecy/Tether (ACTUSDT) opened at $0.0334 on October 5, 2025, at 12:00 ET, and closed at $0.0342 on October 6, 2025, at 12:00 ET, following a choppy and volatile 24-hour session. The pair touched a high of $0.0344 and a low of $0.0323. Total volume for the 24-hour period was approximately 88.8 million, with a notional turnover of $2.95 million.

Structure & Formations

The price action revealed several key levels of support and resistance. A critical support level was observed around $0.0325, which was tested multiple times with a failed breakdown attempt. Resistance emerged at $0.0336, where the price repeatedly failed to advance beyond. A bullish engulfing pattern at $0.0331–$0.0336 indicated a potential short-term reversal, but a bearish harami at $0.0335–$0.0334 suggested uncertainty. A doji formed at $0.0337–$0.0338, signaling indecision among traders.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed multiple times, indicating a volatile and non-trending environment. Price frequently oscillated between the two, suggesting no clear direction. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200-period averages showed a flat distribution, reflecting a lack of long-term directional bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line showed mixed momentum, with brief positive divergence near $0.0336 before flipping negative as the session progressed. The RSI peaked above 65 in the 09:00–11:00 ET period, suggesting overbought conditions, but failed to maintain this level as volume waned. A dip below 50 later in the session hinted at weakening momentum and bearish pressure.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands demonstrated a noticeable expansion between 18:00–20:00 ET, aligning with a sharp drop in price to $0.0323. The price later remained within the middle and upper bands for much of the session, indicating a return to a more stable range. A contraction occurred before the 06:30 ET bullish engulfing pattern, signaling a potential breakout attempt.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to over 3.7 million at 10:15 ET, coinciding with a modest price move, indicating a potential accumulation phase. However, a similar spike at 15:30 ET failed to push the price higher, hinting at distribution by larger players. Notional turnover mirrored the volume spikes, with the highest single-candle turnover of $11.9 million at 10:15 ET. A divergence between rising price and declining volume was observed in the 14:00–16:00 ET window, indicating weakening conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracement levels were applied to the $0.0323–$0.0344 range. The 38.2% level at $0.0334 was a key support/resistance during the session. The 61.8% level at $0.0338 was tested multiple times, acting as a dynamic resistance area. A retest of the 50% level at $0.0333 suggested a possible consolidation phase.

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed backtesting strategy involves entering a long position when price breaks above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and retests it as support, paired with a bullish engulfing pattern and a RSI crossover above 50. A short position is triggered when the price breaks below the 38.2% Fibonacci level, confirmed by a bearish harami and RSI below 50. Stops are placed at the nearest swing low/high, and targets align with the next key Fibonacci or trendline levels. Given today's price action, the strategy could have captured the 06:30 ET bullish engulfing pattern as a buy signal and exited the 11:45 ET bearish reversal as a sell signal.

Looking ahead, traders should monitor the $0.0338–$0.0341 range for potential direction. A breakout above $0.0341 could attract long-term buyers, while a breakdown below $0.0333 may invite short-term selling pressure. Volatility remains high, and sudden shifts in sentiment could disrupt pattern signals. Investors should remain cautious and adjust positions accordingly.