Market Overview for Act I : The AI Prophecy/Tether (ACTUSDT)

Summary
• Price closed near 12:00 ET at $0.0230, down from $0.0241 at 12:00 ET–1, forming a bearish trend.
• Volatility dipped after a morning consolidation phase, with volume surging during early bearish moves.
• RSI and MACD indicate weakening momentum and short-term oversold conditions after sharp declines.

The 24-hour chart for Act I : The AI Prophecy/Tether (ACTUSDT) opened at $0.0241 and closed at $0.0230 by 12:00 ET, with a high of $0.0245 and a low of $0.0213. Total volume reached 217,696,696.95, while notional turnover hit $4,737.66. The pair has shown a bearish bias over the past day, marked by sharp declines in early ET hours and a consolidation phase in the late ET window.

Structure & Formations

The price formed multiple bearish patterns, including a bearish engulfing candle on 2025-11-09 17:00 ET and a long lower shadow indicating rejection at $0.0220. A critical support level appears to form around $0.0217–$0.0219, with a key resistance near $0.0225–$0.0226. The price appears to have tested both levels multiple times, suggesting they could hold importance in the next 24 hours.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both trending downward, confirming a bearish bias. The 200-period daily MA is also in decline, indicating a prolonged bearish phase. The 50/200 MA crossover is not yet significant, but the 20/50 MA death cross appears likely over the next 15–30 minutes.

MACD & RSI

MACD has turned bearish, with the histogram shrinking during consolidation, but a negative divergence suggests further downward pressure. RSI has dipped below 30, signaling oversold conditions, but without a reversal, further decline is possible. The combination suggests momentum is slowing but remains bearish.

Bollinger Bands

Price action has remained within the Bollinger Band range, with volatility increasing during the early ET session before narrowing again. The price currently sits near the lower band, indicating an oversold condition, which may trigger a bounce—though without a clear reversal pattern, a continuation is more likely.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the early ET decline, with turnover peaking at $0.0220–$0.0223. Price and volume action confirm bearish momentum, but the lower volume during the consolidation phase suggests weaker conviction in the move. Divergence between price and volume is absent, signaling a coherent bearish bias.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the $0.0241–$0.0213 swing, key retracement levels are at $0.0231 (38.2%), $0.0226 (50%), and $0.0222 (61.8%). The price has tested the 38.2% and 61.8% levels, with the 50% level acting as a potential pivot for short-term bounces.

Backtest Hypothesis

To refine the backtest, it is recommended to use a basket of major cryptocurrencies like BTC-USD, ETH-USD, and SOL-USD for broader applicability. A clear bearish signal such as a Bearish Engulfing pattern should be followed by a short position, held for one day. To maintain consistency and realism, no additional risk controls like stop-loss or take-profit should be applied during this test period. The results from this strategy will be analyzed from January 1, 2022, through today, providing insights into the effectiveness of using such candlestick signals for short-term trading.