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• Price declined from 0.0228 to 0.0227 amid low volatility.
• RSI and MACD signal weakening momentum with no overbought/oversold extremes.
• Bollinger Bands constrict during the early session, followed by a moderate expansion.
• Volume surged in the early morning hours, coinciding with the price drop to 0.0221.
• No strong reversal patterns detected, but multiple consolidation candles suggest indecision.
At 12:00 ET − 1 on 2025-10-19, Act I : The AI Prophecy/Tether (ACTUSDT) opened at 0.0228. Over the next 24 hours, it reached a high of 0.0236 and a low of 0.0221 before closing at 0.0234 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-20. Total volume over the period was 117,144,976.4 units, with a notional turnover of approximately $2,759,164. The price action appears to reflect a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers, especially as it settled in a mid-range position relative to the session extremes.
Key support levels can be identified around 0.0221 and 0.0224, with 0.0224 particularly showing strong consolidation during the early hours. Resistance appears to cluster at 0.0227 and 0.0234, where the price stalled multiple times. Notably, a 15-minute candle at 03:45 ET formed a bullish harami, hinting at a potential short-term reversal, though the broader trend remained mixed. No strong engulfing or doji patterns were observed that could signal a definitive trend reversal.
The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart intersected near 0.0228–0.0229, indicating a neutral bias. MACD showed a slow divergence with the price, particularly after the price dropped to 0.0221, suggesting a possible recovery. RSI hovered between 40–60 for most of the day, indicating balanced momentum but no strong overbought or oversold signals. Bollinger Bands showed a notable contraction during the early part of the session, followed by a moderate expansion in the morning hours.
Volume spiked during the overnight hours, particularly from 00:30 to 03:00 ET, coinciding with a sharp decline to 0.0221. This suggests increased selling pressure during the low-liquidity period. Notional turnover also increased during this window, providing confirmation of the price move. However, no clear divergence between price and volume was observed later in the day. Fibonacci retracements applied to the 0.0228–0.0221 swing identified 0.0225 as a potential 38.2% retracement level, while 0.0227 served as a 61.8% retracement. These levels appear to be acting as significant psychological barriers.
Backtest Hypothesis
Given the presence of a bullish harami at 03:45 ET and the moderate divergence in MACD during the recovery phase, a Doji Star backtest using ACTUSDT could offer insight into its potential as a reversal signal. The Doji Star pattern, often seen as a sign of indecision, was absent in the provided data, likely due to a ticker mismatch or data limitation. To validate the strategy, we suggest testing the same methodology on a more liquid pair, such as BTC/USDT. A 1-day holding backtest from 2022-01-01 to 2025-10-20 could determine whether the Doji Star reliably signals trend reversals under varying volatility conditions.
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