Market Overview for Act I : The AI Prophecy/Tether (ACTUSDT) – 2025-09-21

• Price declined from a morning high of $0.0407 to close near $0.0395 with bearish momentum increasing in the afternoon.
• RSI hit oversold levels briefly but failed to trigger a strong rebound, suggesting weak conviction in buyers.
• Volume surged during the afternoon selloff, confirming bearish sentiment with a large 15-minute candle on 2025-09-20 19:00.
• Volatility expanded as price moved outside lower Bollinger Band boundaries, signaling a possible retest of key support levels.
• Fibonacci retracements on the 0.0407–0.039 low suggest potential near-term support at $0.0396 and resistance at $0.0404.

At 12:00 ET–1 on 2025-09-20, Act I : The AI Prophecy/Tether (ACTUSDT) opened at $0.04 and hit a high of $0.0407 before settling at $0.0395 by 12:00 ET on 2025-09-21. The pair traded between $0.039 and $0.0407 over 24 hours, with total volume of 43,225,926.7 and notional turnover of $1,722,479.90.

Structure & Formations

Price initially rallied from a morning low of $0.039 to a high of $0.0407 before consolidating and breaking down into a bearish trend. A large bearish candle on 2025-09-20 19:00 (closing at $0.0401) marked a key structural pivot, while a subsequent bearish engulfing pattern on 2025-09-20 23:45 confirmed a reversal. A doji formed at $0.0396 around midnight ET, hinting at indecision between buyers and sellers. Key support appears to be forming near $0.0395, with resistance at $0.0404 and $0.0407 providing potential ceiling levels.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price moved below both the 20-period and 50-period SMAs, indicating bearish bias. The 20SMA crossed below the 50SMA, reinforcing a potential bearish crossover. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA sits just above $0.0397, with the 100 and 200-period SMAs providing longer-term reference points. The price remains below all three, which could suggest continuation of the downward trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative in the afternoon and remained in bearish territory, with the histogram expanding on key bearish moves. RSI dipped into oversold territory below 30 for a brief period, but no strong rebound followed, indicating weak buying pressure. RSI remains in a moderate range, suggesting that while momentum is bearish, a strong reversal is not yet in motion.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded during the afternoon with the price breaking below the lower Bollinger Band at $0.0395. This breakout may indicate a continuation of the bearish trend, with the lower band acting as dynamic support. The price has yet to retest the upper band, which currently sits near $0.0404, and if it does, a bounce or rejection could indicate a reversal. The band contraction prior to the break suggests a period of consolidation before the breakout.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the afternoon and evening, especially on the key bearish candle at 19:00 and a smaller one at 23:45. This volume confirmed the bearish moves. Notional turnover mirrored volume, with large trades contributing to the downward pressure. No significant divergence was observed between volume and price, suggesting that the bearish action was well-supported by liquidity. The high turnover late in the session may indicate a potential exhaustion point for the current decline.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the key swing from $0.039 to $0.0407, the 38.2% level is at $0.0397, the 50% level is at $0.03985, and the 61.8% level is at $0.04005. The price currently trades near the 38.2% level. A break below $0.0395 may trigger a retest of the 61.8% level at $0.04005, but a close above $0.0404 could indicate a potential reversal. The Fibonacci levels offer key reference points for potential support and resistance.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy described involves identifying strong bearish engulfing patterns and key Fibonacci levels for short-term entries. The large bearish engulfing candle on 2025-09-20 19:00 aligns with the strategy’s criteria, offering a potential short entry point. Given that the price has since tested the Fibonacci 38.2% level, and RSI has not shown strong bullish signals, this suggests a continuation of bearish momentum. If the price breaks below $0.0395, the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels could offer potential targets or reversal points, aligning with the backtest hypothesis.