Market Overview for Acala Token/Tether (ACAUSDT) on 2025-10-04

• Acala Token/Tether (ACAUSDT) closed near the session low, with bearish momentum evident in the 24-hour candle pattern.
• Price tested key resistance near $0.0259 before retreating, with a bearish divergence in volume suggesting weakening bullish conviction.
• RSI approached oversold levels, while Bollinger Bands showed a moderate contraction, hinting at potential consolidation or a breakout.
• Turnover peaked during the mid-overnight rally but declined significantly in the early morning, aligning with a lack of follow-through buying.
• The 20-period moving average remained above price, reinforcing the short-term bearish bias in the 15-minute timeframe.

Acala Token/Tether (ACAUSDT) opened at $0.0253 on October 3, 2025, reaching a high of $0.0261 before closing at $0.0248 at 12:00 ET on October 4. Total volume was 19.25M ACA, while notional turnover reached $498,117. The 24-hour period featured a broad-range sell-off after a brief late-night rally, with bearish momentum dominating the latter half of the session.

Structure & Formations

The price action formed a broad descending channel on the 15-minute chart, with a key resistance level at $0.0259 and a strong support cluster forming around $0.0248. A bearish engulfing pattern appeared at the 21:30–22:00 ET window, confirming the downward shift. A doji formed near $0.0251 late morning, indicating indecision and a potential short-term pause in selling pressure. The 24-hour candle is a large bearish body, with a long lower wick showing rejection below $0.0252 but limited buying interest to defend that level.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart are both above current price levels, reinforcing a bearish bias. The 50-period MA crossed below the 20-period MA in mid-overnight trading, forming a death cross. On the daily chart, the 200-period MA is still well above current price levels, suggesting the long-term downtrend remains intact, though a potential short-term bounce is possible if the 50-period MA turns flat or begins to slope upward.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line in early morning trading, confirming a bearish momentum shift. The histogram has remained negative for the past 6 hours, indicating sustained selling pressure. RSI dipped into oversold territory below 30 at the 24-hour close, suggesting a potential pullback could be in the offing. However, without a corresponding increase in volume, a bounce may be shallow. Both indicators point to a high probability of further consolidation or a continuation of the downtrend if volume fails to confirm a reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Price action spent most of the 24-hour period near the lower Bollinger Band, indicating a low volatility environment. A mild contraction in band width began early in the morning before expanding as the downtrend resumed, a classic setup for a potential breakout. The current price sits near the lower band, with the 20-period SMA still above it, suggesting a test of support could occur in the near term.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the late-night rally to $0.0261, with over 1.5 million ACA traded in a single 15-minute window. However, as price moved lower, volume declined significantly, suggesting weakening bearish conviction. Notional turnover mirrored this pattern, with a sharp drop following the breakdown from $0.0259. A divergence between price and volume suggests that the current leg down may be running out of steam, though this could also signal a trap for short sellers if a reversal fails to materialize.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent swing from $0.0246 to $0.0261, the 38.2% retracement level is at $0.0253, which was tested in the early morning but rejected. The 61.8% retracement level at $0.0256 may offer a potential re-entry point for short-term traders. On the daily chart, the 61.8% level of the broader downtrend aligns with $0.0250, which could become a key area of interest for near-term support.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could focus on identifying bearish divergences in volume and RSI during periods of consolidation, as seen in the late-night sell-off. A long-term bearish bias could be confirmed if price fails to retest $0.0256 and breaks below $0.0248 with increasing volume. A mean-reversion strategy could be applied to the doji at $0.0251, with a short entry if price breaks the doji’s low and a target aligned with the 61.8% retracement at $0.0248. This approach would align with both the RSI and volume signals, providing a high-probability trade setup for the next 24–48 hours.