Market Overview: Aave/Tether (AAVEUSDT) - 24-Hour Action to 12:00 ET

Summary
• AAVEUSDT opened at $193.89 and closed at $198.03, with a 24-hour high of $201.63 and low of $176.71.
• Strong bullish momentum emerged in the final hours, supported by above-average volume and rising RSI.
• A key 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $192.25 appears to have acted as strong support during the selloff.

Aave/Tether (AAVEUSDT) opened at $193.89 and closed at $198.03 by 12:00 ET, reaching a high of $201.63 and a low of $176.71 over the 24-hour period. Total volume was 363,046.61 and total turnover amounted to $71,538,346.70. The pair appears to have found support at key Fibonacci and moving average levels in the final hours, suggesting a potential near-term reversal in bearish momentum.

Structure & Formations

AAVEUSDT encountered strong resistance near $201.63, with a large bearish candle signaling caution. A bullish engulfing pattern emerged around $197.0–198.0, followed by a doji near $198.03, hinting at indecision and possible consolidation. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $192.25 acted as a key support, aligning with the 20-period EMA, which may indicate a potential floor for further pullbacks.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price closed above the 20-EMA ($197.37) and 50-EMA ($197.02), suggesting short-term bullish bias. The 200-day EMA at ~$189.36 appears to provide deeper structural support, reinforcing the likelihood of further upside if the current trend holds. A bullish crossover between the 20 and 50 EMA lines could offer early confirmation of a sustained recovery.

MACD & RSI

The RSI rose from 27 (oversold) to 54 over the past 24 hours, indicating a shift in momentum. The MACD histogram turned positive and crossed above the zero line, confirming the reversal. While not yet overbought, these indicators suggest a temporary equilibrium may be forming after the sharp selloff.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the selloff, with the bands widening to over $16 from earlier contractions. Price currently sits near the upper band on the 15-minute chart, indicating overbought conditions and potential for consolidation. A move below the lower band would signal renewed bearish pressure and a test of deeper support.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the selloff, peaking at 35,064.03 at $183.58, but has since declined, suggesting exhaustion. Notional turnover also dropped after the morning recovery, indicating a lack of strong follow-through buying. However, volume remained elevated near key Fibonacci and EMA levels, providing some confidence in the recent bounce.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 61.8% Fibonacci level at $192.25 played a crucial role in halting the selloff, and the 78.6% level at $194.29 appears to be the next potential support. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement at $196.73 could offer resistance in the short term if the current rally continues.

Backtest Hypothesis

Despite a positive annualised return of 17% from the RSI 30/70 strategy, the cumulative return since 2022 stands at –0.68%, reflecting the pronounced volatility and frequent flat periods between signals. A maximum drawdown of 73% highlights the substantial downside risk inherent in this pairing. On average, losing trades (-24.6%) outweigh winning trades (+18.5%), with a modest win rate, which negatively impacts overall performance. This suggests that the simple RSI-based strategy may not be sufficient to capture consistent profits in the AAVEUSDT market over the tested period. Tighter stop-losses, profit targets, and additional trend filters—such as a 200-day moving average—could potentially improve the risk-adjusted returns.