Market Overview for Aave/Tether (AAVEUSDT) on 2025-10-10

• Aave/Tether (AAVEUSDT) closed near the session low, indicating bearish sentiment despite an intraday high of $279.63.
• Volatility expanded significantly during the 24-hour window, with price swinging over $17 between the high and low.
• Volume spiked during sharp declines, particularly after 15:30 ET, while RSI suggested potential oversold conditions near the session close.
• A key support level formed near $267, with price bouncing off this area multiple times, but failed to hold above $273 after sharp pullbacks.
• Momentum indicators like MACD and RSI diverged from price during late-day selling, suggesting potential short-term exhaustion.

AAVEUSDT opened at $271.28 on 2025-10-09 at 12:00 ET and traded as high as $279.63, falling to a low of $262.62 before closing at $264.43 on 2025-10-10 at 12:00 ET. Total 24-hour volume was 62,380.33 units, with a notional turnover of approximately $17.16 million. The price showed a sharp reversal late in the session, signaling potential bearish exhaustion.

Structure & Formations

Price formed several bearish reversal patterns, notably a shooting star around $279.63 and a bearish engulfing pattern near $276–278 after a failed breakout. A key support level at $267.26 held during the selloff, but price failed to retest this area during the closing hours. A long lower shadow around $264.00–$264.43 at the end of the session may suggest temporary support, though bearish pressure remains intact.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price broke below both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages during the late afternoon, confirming the bearish bias. On the daily timeframe, the 50-period and 100-period moving averages are aligned in a bearish crossover, suggesting continued pressure below $270. The 200-period MA remains a distant resistance around $280, indicating a longer-term ceiling.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned bearish late in the session, with the histogram shrinking as price pulled back. RSI fell to levels near 30, signaling oversold conditions but without a clear reversal. Divergence between RSI and price in the final candle indicated a potential bounce, but confirmation remains pending. Momentum appears to have weakened but has not yet reached a full reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the session as price traded near the lower Bollinger Band for most of the closing hours. The width of the bands increased by over 15% during the sharp selloff, indicating increased uncertainty. Price closed near the lower band, suggesting the potential for a bounce, though continued bearish sentiment could keep it below the middle band for now.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the sharp selloff after 15:30 ET, with the candle at 15:30 ET printing over 11,225.77 units of volume. This coincided with a large drop from $267.26 to $267.13, signaling panic selling. Turnover spiked in tandem with the price decline, with notional value reaching $3.02 million in that candle. The divergence between price and volume at the end of the session suggests mixed conviction, with bearish momentum possibly exhausting.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, price found a temporary bounce at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level around $267.26 after a sharp drop from $278.98. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement level of the recent upswing is near $264–$265, aligning with the current price level. This level appears to be a critical area to watch for a potential reversal or consolidation.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could focus on a short-term bearish breakout below key support levels, using the 20-period MA as a trigger and RSI as a confirmation tool. For example, a sell signal could be generated when price breaks below both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart, with RSI below 50. Stop-loss could be placed above the most recent swing high, and a target could be set at the 61.8% Fibonacci level. This approach aligns with the observed bearish divergence and oversold RSI, which may signal a higher probability of a short-term continuation.