Market Overview for 1inch/Tether (1INCHUSDT) on 2025-10-04

• Price action showed a bearish trend with a 0.82% decline in 24 hours.
• Volatility expanded early in the session before consolidating near key support.
• RSI signaled overbought conditions, followed by bearish momentum in the closing hours.
• Volume spiked during the bearish move but faded as price approached support.
• Bollinger Bands indicated contraction near the session low, hinting at potential range-bound behavior.

The 1inch/Tether pair opened at 0.267 on October 3 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of 0.2717 before closing at 0.2662 at 12:00 ET the following day. Total volume amounted to 2,065,503.8 tokens, with a notional turnover of 548.59 Tether. The pair displayed a bearish bias, with a 0.82% drop over the period.

Structure & Formations

The price action formed a descending pattern, breaking below key resistance levels and testing support at 0.266–0.267. A bearish engulfing candle appeared at 18:00 ET, signaling strong selling pressure. A doji later at 01:00 ET suggested indecision, but bearish continuation followed with a breakdown to 0.2647. Key support levels at 0.266 and 0.264 appear critical for near-term direction.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price closed below both the 20 and 50-period EMA lines, indicating bearish momentum. While the 20 EMA slightly outperformed the 50 EMA, both lines trended downward. Daily moving averages (50/100/200) were not provided in the dataset, but the 15-minute trend clearly leaned toward a short-term bearish setup.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned negative in the final hours of the session, confirming bearish momentum. RSI reached overbought levels (above 60) earlier in the day but fell to a neutral range (55–60) by the close. This suggests that earlier strength was not sustained, and buyers failed to hold key levels. A bearish crossover in MACD and a downward slope in RSI both reinforce the likelihood of further downside.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility increased in the early session, with a wide band expansion between 16:00–19:00 ET. The price subsequently consolidated, and Bollinger Bands began to contract, especially after the 01:00 ET doji. The final close of 0.2662 sat near the lower band, suggesting a potential bounce or a continuation lower if support breaks. A contraction in Bollinger Bands often precedes a breakout or breakdown, and the price action aligns with the latter possibility.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the bearish move between 17:00–19:00 ET, with the largest 15-minute candle showing a turnover of 423,196.1 tokens. However, volume dropped significantly after 01:00 ET despite continued price declines, signaling weakening conviction among sellers. The divergence between volume and price suggests that the bearish move may lack sufficient conviction to break below the 0.264 support.

Fibonacci Retracements

Using the swing high of 0.2717 and low of 0.264, the 61.8% retracement level sits at approximately 0.2676. The price tested this level twice but failed to hold above it, indicating potential bearish exhaustion. The 38.2% level at 0.2691 also served as a resistance area where price stalled before reversing lower.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering a short position on a breakdown below the 0.266 support level, with a stop-loss placed above the 0.2693 resistance. The target would be 0.264, based on the 61.8% Fibonacci level and Bollinger Band behavior. RSI and MACD divergence during the final hours of the session further justify this setup, as they indicated a lack of bullish momentum. This hypothesis aligns with the bearish momentum observed in the RSI and MACD, as well as the failure to hold key Fibonacci and moving average levels.