Market Overview for 0G/USDC on 2025-10-04

• Price declined sharply from 3.418 to 2.959, signaling bearish momentum.
• RSI and MACD confirmed oversold conditions toward the close.
• Volatility expanded in early hours, with a large bearish candle on 0G/USDC.
• Notional turnover exceeded $2.2 million, indicating high participation.
• Bollinger Bands showed price hovering near the lower band for most of the session.

The 0G/USDC pair opened at 3.222 on October 3 at 12:00 ET and peaked at 3.426 before closing at 2.959 by 12:00 ET on October 4. The 24-hour period saw a low of 2.959 and total volume of ~654,495 contracts, with notional turnover reaching approximately $2.21 million. The price experienced a sharp bearish move following a strong early rally, suggesting possible profit-taking or a short-term reversal.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick structure showed a significant bearish reversal, with a large bearish candle forming in the early hours of October 4, following a sharp decline from 3.35 to 2.959. A long lower shadow appeared during the 02:15–02:30 ET window, indicating brief rejection of lower prices. Several bearish engulfing patterns formed during the downward phase, while a morning star pattern failed to trigger a rebound, reinforcing the bearish bias.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were in a bearish crossover, confirming the downward trend. The daily chart showed the 50-period MA at ~3.20, the 100-period at ~3.25, and the 200-period at ~3.29—indicating that the pair has moved well below key medium-term support.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed below the signal line early on October 4 and remained negative throughout, indicating bearish momentum. The RSI dropped below 30 during the final hours, reaching as low as 27, confirming oversold conditions. This suggests a potential short-term bounce could be in the offing, though a sustained reversal remains unlikely without a convincing move back above 3.15.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility increased sharply during the early morning hours as the price broke below the lower band. The band width expanded, reflecting heightened uncertainty and increased market participation. Price has since traded near the lower band, suggesting continued bearish pressure until it regains strength above the 20-period MA.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the early morning hours, with a 15-minute candle on October 4 at 00:00–00:15 showing a turnover of $3.35 million on 105,569 contracts. This large volume coincided with the sharp drop from 3.418 to 3.19, suggesting a meaningful shift in sentiment. Volume and turnover diverged in the late afternoon, with lower volume despite further price declines—hinting at exhaustion in the bearish move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels from the 3.42–2.959 move include 3.29 (61.8%) and 3.35 (78.6%), which appear to have acted as resistance during the retracement phase. The 3.15 level (38.2%) may offer near-term support in the event of a short-term bounce, though a break below 2.959 could extend losses to the 2.85–2.90 range.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy outlined involves using a combination of RSI divergence and volume confirmation to identify potential trend reversals. Specifically, the hypothesis suggests entering a long position when RSI turns bullish (crosses above 30 with divergence) and volume increases, while shorting when RSI shows bearish divergence and volume spikes downward. Given the current RSI oversold condition and the sharp volume spike observed on October 4, the 0G/USDC pair appears to meet the criteria for a potential short-term reversal. However, the strong bearish momentum and lack of a clear bullish signal suggest that caution is warranted until a convincing break above 3.15 occurs.