The Market Impact of Alameda Research's Ongoing Solana Liquidation: Assessing Overhang Risk and Strategic Entry Opportunities for Institutional Investors

The Solana (SOL) market remains under a unique dual pressure: the systematic liquidation of tokens held by the Alameda Research/FTX estate and the surging institutional demand driven by spot ETF inflows. As of November 2025, this dynamic interplay has created a complex landscape for investors, balancing predictable selling pressure with resilient buying interest. For institutional participants, understanding the cadence of Alameda's liquidation schedule and its interaction with market fundamentals is critical to navigating overhang risk and identifying strategic entry windows.

1. Current Liquidation Progress and Market Overhang

Alameda Research and the FTX estate have sold over 8.98 million SOL tokens since November 2023, generating $1.2 billion in liquidated value. The most recent unlock on November 11, 2025, released 193,000 SOL ($30 million), part of a structured vesting program managed under bankruptcy oversight. Approximately 4.18 million SOL tokens remain staked or locked in the estate, valued at $977 million. These tokens are subject to a four-year vesting schedule, with smaller monthly unlocks expected to continue through 2028.

This prolonged liquidation timeline creates a persistent overhang, as the market must absorb roughly $30 million in monthly selling pressure. While the estate has prioritized converting tokens into cash for creditor repayments-often via major exchanges like Coinbase and Binance- the gradual nature of these sales mitigates the risk of a sudden price shock. However, the cumulative effect of these unlocks combined with macroeconomic headwinds, could exacerbate volatility during weaker market conditions.

2. Historical Price Volatility and Institutional Demand

The Solana price has historically exhibited volatility during Alameda's liquidation events. For instance, the November 11, 2025, unlock coincided with a 4.9% price drop to $153.61, breaking below key support levels. Such movements underscore the market's sensitivity to scheduled selling pressure. Yet, institutional demand has remained robust, with Solana spot ETFs recording $350 million in inflows across eleven consecutive days in late 2025.

This resilience is driven by major financial institutions, including Rothschild Investment and PNC Financial Services, which have allocated capital to Solana's yield-focused ETFs. Grayscale's introduction of options trading for its Solana Trust ETF (GSOL) further highlights the growing sophistication of institutional participation. Bitwise's Solana ETF (BSOL) led weekly inflows with $118 million, leveraging staking rewards averaging 7% annually.

However, the correlation between ETF inflows and price stability is not linear. For example, late November 2025 saw $343 million in ETF inflows alongside a 15% price decline. This disconnect suggests that while institutional buying provides a floor, broader market conditions-including risk-off sentiment and technical support levels-play a dominant role in short-term price action.

3. Strategic Entry Opportunities for Institutional Investors

For institutional investors, the interplay between Alameda's liquidation schedule and ETF inflows presents a nuanced opportunity. The predictable nature of monthly unlocks creates a "buy-the-dip" environment, particularly during periods of weak macroeconomic sentiment. For instance, the November 2025 unlock coincided with a 4.9% price drop, yet ETF inflows surged to $336 million for the following week. This pattern indicates that institutional buyers may view dips as entry points, especially when fundamentals remain strong.

Solana's ecosystem fundamentals-high developer activity, rising DeFi total value locked (TVL), and surging decentralized exchange (DEX) trading volumes-further justify a long-term bullish case. DEX volumes on Solana have recently surpassed Ethereum and BNB Chain, signaling growing network utility. For investors with a multi-year horizon, the gradual liquidation of Alameda's holdings may act as a forced seller, creating liquidity at attractive valuations.

4. Risk Mitigation and Position Sizing

While the ETF-driven demand offsets some selling pressure, investors must remain cautious about the remaining 4.18 million SOL tokens in the estate. These tokens, valued at $977 million, represent a potential $1.5 billion in liquidated value if prices rise to $200. Position sizing should account for this overhang, with allocations adjusted based on the cadence of unlocks and macroeconomic conditions.

Additionally, hedging strategies-such as options on Solana ETFs can mitigate downside risk during high-impact unlock events. Investors should also monitor the estate's staking activity, as large-scale unstaking could signal an acceleration in liquidation timelines.

Conclusion

Alameda Research's Solana liquidation represents both a risk and an opportunity for institutional investors. The structured nature of the estate's sales creates a predictable overhang, while ETF inflows and strong fundamentals provide a counterbalance. For those with a medium-term horizon, the key lies in timing entries during unlock-driven dips and leveraging ETFs to access yield and hedging tools. As the remaining 5 million tokens are phased out through 2028, the market's ability to absorb this supply will ultimately determine Solana's trajectory. Investors who align their strategies with this evolving dynamic may find themselves well-positioned to capitalize on the next phase of Solana's growth.