Market Analogies: The Jordan Mindset and Choi's Craft in Historical Context

The emotional discipline required for durable investment success has a familiar blueprint in other fields. It is the ability to treat setbacks not as personal failures but as essential data points in a larger process. This mindset finds its clearest expression in the legendary Michael Jordan, who framed the path to mastery around the necessity of failure. His insight was simple: "Failure makes me work even harder." For Jordan, the sting of coming up short was a catalyst, not a conclusion. This is the foundational parallel. In investing, the equivalent is the courage to commit capital to an idea, knowing that not every test will yield a winner, but each outcome-successful or not-provides valuable information for the next move.

This principle extends to the craft of creation, where Susan Choi offers a practical philosophy for moving forward. Her advice to "move it forward" when writing is a direct metaphor for disciplined investing. Just as a writer must avoid getting stuck in endless revision loops before establishing a draft's structure, an investor must avoid paralysis by analysis. Choi's experience of writing in circles-going forward, then backtracking, then forward again-mirrors the frustration of overthinking a trade or holding a position too long in fear of a wrong turn. The lesson is to commit to a direction, test it, and then adjust based on the results.

More broadly, Choi's counsel to "not be afraid to write lots of garbage" is a powerful lens for portfolio management. The first draft of a business idea, like the first version of a scene, may not be perfect. Yet, discarding it entirely risks losing a kernel of potential that could find its place elsewhere. In the same way, an investor should not fear making a series of smaller, experimental bets. The "garbage" written down today may contain the seed of a future insight, or it may simply confirm a flawed premise, freeing capital for a better opportunity. The key is to have a system for capturing and reviewing all attempts, understanding that value often emerges from the messy, iterative process itself.

Historical Parallels: The Investor's Process in Market Cycles

The Jordan/Choi mindset isn't just a personal philosophy; it's a proven framework for navigating the market's brutal cycles. When the going gets tough, the emotional discipline to keep working harder after a loss becomes the difference between survival and surrender. This echoes the experience of investors during crashes, where the instinct is to retreat. Yet, history shows that the most durable gains often come from having the courage to step forward when others are afraid. As Jim Rogers noted, "Bottoms in the investment world don't end with four-year lows; they end with 10- or 15-year lows." These inflection points are rare, but they demand the same patience and conviction that Jordan showed when he was cut from his high school team. Waiting for such extreme mispricings requires a belief in the process, not just the outcome. This patience is grounded in foundational research, not fleeting trends. Benjamin Franklin's timeless advice that "An investment in knowledge pays the best interest" remains the bedrock of any successful strategy. It's the antithesis of chasing noise. When markets swing wildly, the investor who has done the work-understanding a business, its economics, and its long-term trajectory-has a clear anchor. This is the "move it forward" principle in action: having a thesis based on deep analysis, then committing capital to test it, regardless of short-term volatility. The alternative, as Phillip Fisher warned, is becoming part of a crowd that knows the price of everything but the value of nothing.

The market's long arc offers a clear parallel. Just as Jordan's career was defined by relentless work after early failure, the investor's path is defined by consistent application of a disciplined process through bull and bear markets. The emotional toll of a crash is real, but it is also a data point. It tests the strength of one's research and the resilience of one's conviction. The key is to view each downturn not as a personal indictment of one's strategy, but as another opportunity to apply the same principles of self-belief and courageous action. In this light, the historical record becomes less a forecast and more a confirmation: the process, when followed with rigor and humility, has a long track record of delivering results.

Catalysts and Risks: Applying the Framework to the Current Environment

The timeless principles of process and perspective must now be tested against the current market setup. The key is to translate abstract wisdom into concrete watchpoints that signal whether to double down or recalibrate.

First, identify the catalysts. Periods of extreme market pessimism remain the most potent signals for long-term capital deployment. The principle that "Bottoms in the investment world don't end with four-year lows; they end with 10- or 15-year lows" is not a prediction but a warning to stay alert. A broad market decline of 20% or more, especially one driven by widespread fear rather than fundamental deterioration, should trigger a review of deeply researched theses. This is the "move it forward" moment for patient capital, echoing the courage required to step into a down market when others are fearful.

Second, monitor the frequency and nature of "trust exercises" in corporate and regulatory spheres. These are the modern equivalents of the theatrical narratives in Susan Choi's work, where reality and performance blur. When leadership teams or regulators engage in frequent, high-profile reassurances that seem disconnected from underlying operational pressures, it often signals a need for structural reassessment. Such exercises can be a red flag for underlying instability, a sign that the current narrative is being propped up rather than the fundamentals being addressed.

The paramount risk is mistaking short-term noise for a fundamental thesis failure. This is the trap of overthinking the first draft. The antidote is the disciplined process of "writing lots of garbage"-making a series of smaller, experimental bets to test ideas, then revisiting them later with fresh eyes. When a stock drops 15% on a single earnings miss, the initial reaction is often to discard the entire thesis. A more resilient approach is to treat that drop as a data point, not a verdict. It may confirm a flaw, but it may also simply be a temporary overreaction that creates a buying opportunity for those who have done the foundational work.

The bottom line is to apply the framework consistently. Watch for the market's extreme lows as potential catalysts, but only deploy capital after thorough research. Watch for the theatricality of corporate narratives as a sign of underlying tension. And always, when faced with a setback, ask not "Was I wrong?" but "What does this new data tell me about my process?" That is the path from failure to work, and from noise to insight.