Mark Carney Favored at 78% to Win Canadian Election

As Canada prepares to head to the polls for its 45th election, political bettors on various platforms are closely monitoring the outcomes. On platforms like Polymarket, a contract asking bettors to predict the next Prime Minister of Canada gives the Liberal Party's Mark Carney a 78% chance of winning, while the Conservatives' Pierre Poilievre has a 22% chance.

This prediction aligns with the general sentiment of public polls, which also favor Carney. A poll aggregator from a public broadcaster puts Carney's chances at 89%. Another prediction market, Myriad Markets, gives Carney similar odds to Polymarket. Even FanDuel, a licensed betting platform open only to residents of Ontario, initially gave the Conservatives a sharp lead of 70%, but odds have since fallen in line with prediction markets, now giving the Liberals a roughly 80% chance of winning.

Unlike the U.S. election, the Canadian election does not have a significant crypto angle, with leaders' campaigns focused on issues such as the trade war and inflation. There is a growing narrative on the internet that Polymarket is prone to manipulation, with critics arguing that Poilievre's chances are being suppressed and do not reflect the political sentiment of the populace. However, manipulating prediction markets would be expensive, and there is no credible evidence that this is happening. Polymarket is banned in Canada's largest province after a settlement with its securities regulator.

Data from Polymarket Analytics shows that the Canadian election contract leads the platform in open interest, indicating high market engagement. Market data also shows that position holding is quite distributed, with the largest holder of the Poilievre—No side holding 6% of all shares and the largest holder of the Carney—Yes side holding 5%. One bettor, who is betting big on Carney with a six-figure position, stated that their motives are non-partisan and that the quality of Canadian polling makes them confident that the Liberals will win. The trader with the largest winnings on the contract is "ball-sack" with a profit of $124,890, thanks to bets on Carney. On the other side of the trade is "biden4prez," who lost just over $98,000 betting on Poilievre and against Carney.