Marathon Petroleum Surges 2.79% on Refinery Expansion Hopes and Earnings Anticipation

Summary
• Marathon Petroleum (MPC) trades at $175.17, up 2.79% intraday, with a 52-week high of $202.30 and low of $115.10.
• The stock’s intraday range spans $173.19 to $176.65, with a dynamic P/E ratio of 15.74 and a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy).
• The Garyville refinery’s capacity to process more Venezuelan heavy crude and an upcoming February 3 earnings call drive near-term optimism.
• Analysts project $123.8B revenue and $4.2B earnings by 2028, with a $200.67 fair value target.
Marathon Petroleum’s sharp intraday rally reflects investor confidence in refining margins and capital allocation strategies. The stock’s performance aligns with broader sector optimism, though long-term decarbonization risks linger. With refining utilization rates and buyback momentum in focus, the February earnings report will be a pivotal catalyst.

Garyville Refinery Expansion Fuels Short-Term Optimism
Marathon Petroleum’s intraday surge is driven by the Garyville refinery’s potential to process more Venezuelan heavy crude, a move that could bolster refining margins and utilization rates. The refinery’s operational flexibility, combined with strong near-term refining margins, has reignited investor confidence in the company’s ability to capitalize on current market conditions. Additionally, the upcoming February 3 earnings call, which will detail 2025 fourth-quarter results, has heightened anticipation around capital allocation decisions and buyback momentum. While the stock’s 2.79% gain reflects short-term optimism, the long-term narrative remains contingent on structural demand risks for fossil fuels.

Oil & Gas Refining Sector Gains Momentum as Valero Leads
The Oil & Gas Refining sector has seen mixed performance, with Marathon Petroleum outpacing peers like Valero Energy (VLO), which recently announced a 4.71% intraday gain. Valero’s Benicia refinery closure in California has shifted focus to refining efficiency and import strategies, while Marathon’s Garyville expansion highlights its competitive positioning in heavy crude processing. The sector’s Zacks Industry Rank of 99 (top 41%) underscores its resilience amid regulatory and environmental pressures. Marathon’s forward P/E of 11.86 aligns with the industry average, but its PEG ratio of 0.66 suggests undervaluation relative to earnings growth expectations.

Options and ETFs for Navigating MPC’s Volatility and Earnings Catalyst
• 200-day MA: 170.29 (below current price); RSI: 32.79 (oversold); MACD: -5.72 (bearish divergence).
• Bollinger Bands: Upper $194.94, Middle $173.95, Lower $152.96 (price near middle band).
• Key support/resistance: 30D support $190.11–$190.78, 200D support $164.23–$165.87.
Marathon Petroleum’s technicals suggest a short-term bullish bias, with RSI at oversold levels and price consolidating near the middle Bollinger Band. The 200-day MA at $170.29 provides a critical support level, while the 30D support at $190.11 acts as a near-term ceiling. Traders should monitor the February 3 earnings report for momentum shifts, as refining margins and buyback updates could drive volatility.
Top Options Picks:
• MPC20260116C170 (Call): Strike $170, Expiry 2026-01-16, IV 50.05%, Leverage 22.54%, Delta 0.6176, Theta -0.4532, Gamma 0.0265, Turnover 7,975. High leverage and moderate delta position this call to benefit from a 5% price move (target $184.43), yielding a $14.43 payoff per contract.
• MPC20260116C180 (Call): Strike $180, Expiry 2026-01-16, IV 39.28%, Leverage 82.66%, Delta 0.3024, Theta -0.2915, Gamma 0.0309, Turnover 11,595. Strong liquidity and high leverage make this call ideal for a bullish breakout, with a 5% move projecting a $4.43 payoff.
Action: Aggressive bulls may consider MPC20260116C170 into a bounce above $173.95, while MPC20260116C180 offers leveraged exposure to a potential earnings-driven rally.

Backtest Marathon Petroleum Stock Performance
The backtest of the performance of the Momentum (MPC) strategy after a 3% intraday increase from 2022 to the present reveals favorable results. The strategy demonstrated a 3-day win rate of 57.61%, a 10-day win rate of 59.82%, and a 30-day win rate of 62.02%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the short term. The maximum return during the backtest was 6.81%, with a maximum return day at 59, suggesting that the MPC strategy can capitalize on intraday surges effectively.

Position for MPC’s Earnings-Driven Breakout: Key Levels and Timing
Marathon Petroleum’s intraday rally is a prelude to its February 3 earnings report, which will clarify refining margins and capital allocation priorities. The stock’s technicals and options activity suggest a near-term bullish bias, with the 200-day MA and RSI signaling a potential rebound. Investors should prioritize the $170.29 support level and $173.95 middle Bollinger Band as critical thresholds. Valero Energy (VLO), up 4.71% intraday, reinforces sector strength, but Marathon’s refining expansion and buyback momentum position it as a top catalyst-driven play. Act now: Buy MPC20260116C170 for a high-leverage, low-risk entry ahead of earnings, or MPC20260116C180 for a leveraged breakout trade.