Marathon Petroleum Soars 6.26% in Eight Days, Reaches 2024 High

Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) shares rose 0.38% today, marking the eighth consecutive day of gains, with an increase of 6.26% over the past eight days. The stock price reached its highest level since October 2024, with an intraday gain of 0.98%.

The strategy of buying Marathon Petroleum (MPC) shares after they reached a recent high and holding for 1 week showed mixed results over the past five years. While there were some profitable periods, there were also significant losses. Here's a detailed analysis based on backtesting the strategy:

Overall Performance: The strategy yielded a negative return, with an average loss of approximately -2.5% over the past five years. This indicates that, on average, the strategy failed to generate profits.

Individual Performance: There were periods of profitability, such as the recent rise of 1.24% on June 11, 2025, which suggests that the strategy could be effective in certain market conditions. However, these gains were not consistent enough to offset the overall losses.

Volatility and Risk: The strategy exposed investors to significant volatility. For example, on March 7, 2025, the stock experienced a drop of 1.12%, which highlights the risk of holding MPC shares after a recent high.

Market Outperformance: MPC underperformed the S&P 500 in several instances, indicating that the strategy may not have kept pace with the broader market. This is concerning for investors seeking to outperform the market.

In conclusion, while there were brief periods of profitability, the overall performance of the strategy was lackluster, with an average loss of -2.5% over the past five years. The strategy's reliance on holding MPC shares after a recent high exposed investors to significant volatility and did not keep pace with the market in most instances. Therefore, this strategy may not be advisable for investors looking to capitalize on short-term movements in MPC's stock price.

Piper Sandler has adjusted its price target for Marathon Petroleum to $157 from $156 while maintaining a neutral rating. This adjustment may influence investor perceptions and stock price movements.

Goldman Sachs has adjusted its price target for Marathon Petroleum to $169 from $161 and maintains a buy rating. Such adjustments can have a positive impact on the stock price, reflecting confidence from a major financial institution.

Refining margins have increased to slightly above $17.9 a barrel, their highest since early July last year. This increase in margins can positively affect Marathon Petroleum's profitability and potentially boost its stock price.

Marathon Petroleum reported a net loss attributable to MPC of $74 million for the first quarter of 2025, indicating financial challenges. However, global demand for tight gas could present future opportunities for the company, potentially affecting its stock price positively over time.