Marathon Petroleum Plummets 3.9% on CFO Appointment: Is This the Start of a Bearish Downtrend?

Summary
• Marathon Petroleum (MPC) plunges 3.9% to $167.67, its lowest since December 2023
• Maria Khoury named CFO, succeeding John Quaid in a $3.275M compensation package
• RSI at 22.65 and MACD -3.1 signal bearish momentum
• Intraday range of $167.54–$174.38 highlights volatile session

Marathon Petroleum’s stock tumbled sharply on Thursday, driven by a mix of strategic leadership changes and bearish technical signals. The appointment of Maria Khoury as CFO, while a routine executive transition, coincided with a broader market selloff in energy stocks. With RSI near oversold territory and a short-term bearish trend confirmed by MACD divergence, traders are now scrutinizing whether this correction marks a buying opportunity or a deeper downturn.

CFO Transition Sparks Profit-Taking Amid Market Volatility
The 3.9% intraday drop in Marathon Petroleum’s stock was primarily driven by profit-taking following the announcement of Maria Khoury’s appointment as CFO. While the transition itself is a standard leadership change, the timing aligned with broader market jitters in the energy sector. Khoury’s extensive background in oil and gas finance (via GE Oil & Gas and Danaher) suggests continuity in strategy, yet investors appear to be discounting near-term growth potential. The stock’s decline also reflects a broader bearish sentiment in the refining sector, as evidenced by Valero Energy’s (VLO) 0.97% drop. Technical indicators like the RSI at 22.65 and MACD below zero further validate the bearish momentum.

Refining Sector Weakness: VLO Drags as MPC Falters
Marathon Petroleum’s selloff mirrors weakness across the refining sector, with Valero Energy (VLO) down 0.97% despite its dominant market position. The sector’s underperformance is linked to waning demand for refined products and geopolitical uncertainties, including the U.S. blockade of Venezuelan oil tankers. While MPC’s fundamentals remain robust (52-week high of $202.29), the sector’s short-term outlook is clouded by oversupply concerns and softening crude prices. This synchronized decline suggests that MPC’s move is part of a broader industry correction rather than an isolated event.

Bearish Playbook: Options and ETFs to Capitalize on MPC’s Downtrend
• 200-day MA: $168.75 (just above current price)
• RSI: 22.65 (oversold territory)
• MACD: -3.096 (bearish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: Lower band at $178.32 (key support)

Marathon Petroleum’s technical profile favors a short-term bearish bias, with RSI near oversold levels and MACD signaling momentum divergence. The 200-day MA at $168.75 acts as a critical psychological level; a break below this could trigger further selling. For options traders, the MPC20260116P160 and MPC20260116P165 contracts stand out due to their high leverage ratios (75.15% and 39.90%) and moderate deltas (-0.26 and -0.40), offering amplified downside exposure. Both options also exhibit strong liquidity (turnover of 208,205 and 52,126) and favorable theta/gamma profiles, making them ideal for a 5% downside scenario. Aggressive bears should monitor the $160 strike for a potential short-term bottom, while ETFs like XLE (Energy Select Sector SPDR) could serve as a proxy for sector-wide positioning.

Backtest Marathon Petroleum Stock Performance
The backtest of the performance of the Momentum (MPC) strategy after an intraday plunge of -4% from 2022 to the present shows favorable results. The strategy was tested 434 times, with a 3-day win rate of 56.91%, a 10-day win rate of 58.76%, and a 30-day win rate of 61.06%. The maximum return during the backtest was 7.03%, which occurred on day 59, indicating that the MPC strategy tends to recover from significant intraday declines and has the potential for positive returns in the short to medium term.

Act Now: MPC’s Downtrend Presents High-Reward Options Opportunities
Marathon Petroleum’s sharp decline is a high-probability short-term trade, supported by bearish technicals and sector-wide weakness. With RSI near oversold levels and the 200-day MA acting as a dynamic support, the stock is poised for further downside unless it breaks above $178.32. The MPC20260116P160 and MPC20260116P165 options offer leveraged exposure to this scenario, with implied volatility at 28.08% and 29.07% respectively. Investors should also watch Valero Energy (VLO) for sector confirmation, as its -0.97% move underscores broader refining sector fragility. For those with a contrarian outlook, a rebound above $174.38 could signal a short-covering rally, but the immediate bias remains bearish.