Marathon Petroleum Climbs 0.2 as $240M Volume Ranks 398th Amid Mixed Analyst Outlooks

On August 18, 2025, Marathon Petroleum (MPC) rose 0.20% with a trading volume of $240 million, ranking 398th in market activity. The stock’s recent performance reflects mixed signals from analysts and market participants. Despite a year-to-date gain of 16.4%, MPC has underperformed energy-specific benchmarks, with refining throughput and renewable diesel volumes declining as key challenges.

Analyst sentiment remains cautiously optimistic. A “Moderate Buy” consensus, based on nine “Strong Buy” ratings and eight “Holds,” contrasts with a less bullish outlook two months ago. Barclays analyst Theresa Chen reaffirmed a $176 price target, implying an 8.4% upside, while the average target of $184.67 suggests a 13.8% potential gain. However, earnings forecasts project a 22.4% decline in 2025 fiscal EPS to $7.54, driven by softer refining margins and revenue drops.

Institutional investors have adjusted stakes in MPC. Raymond James increased its holdings by 6.3% in Q1, now owning 1.97% of the stock, while Philadelphia Trust Co. reduced its position by 12% in the same period. The company’s Q2 earnings beat estimates, with $3.96 per share against $3.22 expected, though revenue fell 11.1% year-over-year to $34.1 billion. A quarterly dividend of $0.91 was declared, yielding 2.2% annually.

The strategy of buying the top 500 stocks by daily trading volume and holding for one day from 2022 to present delivered a CAGR of 6.98% but experienced a 15.46% maximum drawdown. Mid-2023’s sharp decline underscores the volatility inherent in high-volume trading approaches.