Manta Network/Bitcoin Market Overview

• Price drifted lower over 24 hours, closing near session lows after a bearish reversal in late NY session
• Momentum weakened as RSI dipped toward oversold territory and MACD showed bearish divergence
• Volatility expanded in the final 4 hours, with Bollinger Bands widening and price testing lower bounds
• High-volume selling occurred between 23:45 and 00:30 ET, but failed to push price above key psychological levels
• Fibonacci 61.8% level at 9.8e-07 briefly held but broke by 04:15 ET, signaling deeper bearish potential

Manta Network/Bitcoin (MANTABTC) opened at 1.01e-06 on 2025-11-02 at 12:00 ET and drifted lower to close at 9.4e-07 by 12:00 ET on 2025-11-03, with a high of 1.03e-06 and a low of 8.5e-07. Total trading volume over the 24-hour period was 523,679.5 units, with a notional turnover of 473.1e-06 BTC. Price action showed a steady bearish bias, with key resistance failing to hold during the early hours of the session.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart revealed a bearish continuation pattern, with the price failing to hold key support levels below 1.01e-06 after 18:00 ET on 2025-11-02. A notable breakdown occurred at 9.9e-07, with the price closing below it in late trading. A bearish engulfing pattern formed at 23:45 ET on 2025-11-02 as volume spiked to 10,000 units. The price continued to slide, with 9.8e-07 and 9.7e-07 acting as temporary support levels before breaking decisively in the early morning hours.

Moving Averages and MACD/RSI

Short-term (20- and 50-period) and long-term (100- and 200-period) moving averages were bearishly aligned, with the 20-period MA falling below the 50-period line late in the session. MACD crossed below zero during the early hours, with a bearish divergence forming as the histogram contracted despite price lows. RSI fell into oversold territory below 25 by 04:15 ET, indicating potential short-term exhaustion but not necessarily a reversal.

Bollinger Bands and Fibonacci Retracements

Volatility expanded sharply after the 23:45 ET sell-off, with Bollinger Bands widening and the price hovering near the lower band throughout the session. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 9.8e-07 briefly held but was broken decisively around 04:15 ET. The 38.2% level at 9.9e-07 was also tested multiple times without strong buying support. The price ended the session near the 78.6% retracement of the prior upward swing, suggesting bearish exhaustion may be nearing a short-term limit.

Volume and Turnover

Trading activity surged in the final 4 hours of the session, with high-volume selling between 23:45 ET and 00:30 ET. The largest individual candle was at 23:45 ET, with 10,000 units traded at 9.9e-07. Notional turnover increased by nearly 200% in the 4 hours leading up to the close, coinciding with a sharp price drop. Despite the increased volume, the price did not show strong reversal signals, suggesting continued bearish momentum.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the repeated failure of key support levels and bearish momentum signs, a backtest of a "sell at next support level" strategy could offer insights into the pair’s bearish potential. Using daily close prices and defining the "next support level" as the first confirmed close below the most recent swing low after an entry, one might test how this rule performs over multiple cycles. A 20-day rolling low or a fixed 5% stop-loss could serve as alternative exit rules for robustness. Signals would be triggered on the daily close, and P&L would be calculated using the close price. Further refinement could include volume filters to confirm selling pressure before entry.