Makenita Resources Doubles Sisson West Holdings: Critical Mineral Opportunity Amid Supply Chain Risks

Makenita Resources has doubled its Sisson West Tungsten Project footprint to 9,400 contiguous acres in New Brunswick, directly bordering Northcliff Resources' newly designated "Nation-Building Project" Sisson Mine. This expansion positions the company to leverage shared infrastructure and proximity to critical transportation networks, reducing future development costs.

The technical validity of the project has been independently verified by geologist Frank Bain under National Instrument 43-101 standards, providing credibility to mineral resource estimates according to the company's announcement.

Regulatory adjacency to the government-backed Nation-Building Project offers potential permitting advantages, especially given the Canadian Critical Minerals Strategy's $3.8 billion investment framework. The federal government's $8.2 million investment into Northcliff's Sisson Mine underscores institutional support for the region's development as a domestic supply hub for defense and renewable energy materials. However, while management anticipates active development in 2026, no concrete timelines or regulatory milestones have been established for Makenita's permitting process.

The company's rare earth project in Quebec (9,000 acres) further diversifies its critical minerals portfolio amid surging global demand. Yet without a defined exploration schedule or funding commitments, the path to production remains contingent on securing financing and navigating provincial regulatory approvals.

Tungsten Market Dynamics: Growth Amid Constraints

Global tungsten demand is poised for steady expansion, projected to grow at a 4.7% compound annual growth rate through 2033, reaching $2.84 billion. This growth is propelled by robust demand from defense, aerospace, and the rapidly growing electric vehicle sector, which produced 17.3 million units in 2024 alone. While Asia Pacific currently holds the largest market share at 54.1%, the United States is anticipated to be the fastest-growing region at 3.9% CAGR.

However, significant supply-side vulnerabilities persist. China's dominance is eroding, with its primary market share falling below 82% due to declining ore grades and strategic export restrictions. This decline forces Western nations to actively diversify sourcing, seeking alternatives in Europe, South Korea, and new projects in the U.S. and Australia. Despite this diversification push, the market remains structurally tight through 2030, characterized by limited new greenfield projects and reliance on recycled scrap.

Price stability emerged recently, with ammonium paratungstate (APT) prices settling around $415 per metric tonne unit (MTU) in early 2025. Forecasts suggest prices could climb towards $460/MTU by 2026. Yet, this stability masks inherent volatility. Geopolitical tensions, ongoing export controls, and the strategic importance of tungsten for critical applications like defense create persistent risks. The market's heavy dependence on a few non-Chinese suppliers and scrap recycling further amplifies price sensitivity to supply chain disruptions.

Execution Risks and Liquidity Constraints

Makenita faces immediate capital constraints, having raised just $490,000 in March 2025 against the $2 million+ needed for scheduled 2026 resource definition drilling its Ontario silver-cobalt project according to financial reports. This significant shortfall creates execution risks and likely necessitates additional equity raises, potentially diluting existing shareholders. While the company secured a drill permit and began mobilization for its maiden campaign, the funding gap undermines its ability to execute timelines independently. Regulatory hurdles add further uncertainty; New Brunswick's history of slow permitting could delay development of its Sisson West tungsten project, despite rising global demand driven by strategic constraints. Recent progress includes achieving U.S. DTC eligibility (KENYF) in May 2025, improving trading accessibility, and pursuing German market access. However, these liquidity enhancements remain secondary to the primary near-term threat posed by insufficient capital for core operational milestones.

Makenita Resources: Binary Outcomes Ahead

Makenita Resources' near-term development hinges on securing $2 million in funding to execute resource definition drilling in 2026. This timeline represents a critical catalyst. Success unlocks significant upside: proximity to Northcliff's Sisson Mine infrastructure could slash Makenita's capital expenditure by 30%, dramatically improving project economics. However, failure to raise capital or a sustained price collapse below $400 per MTU could stall progress indefinitely according to market analysis. While global demand surges and geopolitical tensions tighten the tungsten market, Makenita faces high execution risk. The 33 million share structure amplifies potential gains but also magnifies dilution risk if further funding is needed. Investors eyeing this high-risk play must weigh the substantial reward of early involvement against the very real threat of indefinite delay should funding or price thresholds not be met. The outcome remains binary and highly contingent.