Major Russian exporters’ Aug. FX sales -31% m/m to $6.2B

Major Russian exporters’ Aug. FX sales -31% m/m to $6.2B

Title: Major Russian Exporters' Aug. FX Sales Drop 31% m/m to $6.2B

Russian exporters' foreign exchange (FX) sales experienced a significant decline in August, according to the latest data. The total FX sales for August stood at $6.2 billion, marking a 31% month-over-month (m/m) decrease compared to July. This substantial drop in FX sales reflects the broader economic challenges and geopolitical uncertainties that Russia continues to face [1].

The decline in FX sales is part of a larger trend of economic slowdown in Russia, as indicated by the S&P Global Russia Services PMI. The PMI Business Activity Index for August stabilized at 50.0, the no-change benchmark, after two consecutive months of decline. Despite this stabilization, demand in the broader private sector remains subdued, and confidence in the year-ahead outlook has weakened [1].

One of the key factors contributing to the drop in FX sales is the ongoing geopolitical tensions and the impact of sanctions on Russian energy exports. Russian energy giant Gazprom's GAZP average daily natural gas supplies to Europe via the TurkStream undersea pipeline decreased by 2% in August from the previous month, according to Reuters calculations. This decline in gas exports is part of a broader trend of reduced energy exports to Europe, which has been exacerbated by the expiration of Ukraine's transit deal with Moscow [2].

Moreover, the Arctic LNG 2 project, operated by Novatek, has been facing significant challenges due to sanctions. Despite recent loadings of LNG cargoes to China, the overall outlook for the project remains negative, with the financial bottom line for Novatek deeply negative and besieged by sanctions-related problems [3].

The combination of these factors has led to a significant drop in FX sales for Russian exporters in August. The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) has been implementing policies to slow the economy and reduce inflation, which may be contributing to the economic slowdown. The CBR has put in 300 basis points (bps) of rate cuts since July and aims to put in another 300 bps before the end of the year, bringing the prime rate to a more manageable level of 15% [1].

The outlook for Russian FX sales remains uncertain, with the CBR targeting an inflation rate of 4% but expecting it to take several years to reach this goal. The ongoing geopolitical tensions and the impact of sanctions on Russian exports will continue to shape the economic landscape and FX sales in the coming months.

References:
[1] https://www.intellinews.com/russian-services-pmi-improves-to-49-1-in-august-but-demand-remains-fragile-399330/
[2] https://www.tradingview.com/news/reuters.com,2025:newsml_L8N3UO0C7:0-russian-pipeline-gas-exports-to-europe-down-2-m-m-in-august-data-shows/
[3] https://www.lloydslist.com/LL1154683/China%E2%80%99s-warming-view-of-Russian-gas-won%E2%80%99t-unfreeze-Arctic-LNG-2-problems