First Majestic (AG) Surges 12% on Silver Rally and Earnings Momentum – Is This a Short-Term Catalyst or a New Bullish Trend?

Summary
• First Majestic (AG) rockets 12.07% to $15.14, driven by a 3.59% surge in silver prices and a 95% revenue jump in Q3.
• The stock trades above its 52-week high of $15.69, with RSI at 70.75 and MACD crossing above the signal line.
• A $0.0052 dividend and record production of 7.7M AgEq oz in Q1 2025 add to investor optimism.

First Majestic’s explosive move reflects a confluence of macro and micro factors: silver’s rally, strong earnings, and a dividend boost. With the stock trading near its 52-week peak and technical indicators flashing bullish signals, the question is whether this is a fleeting surge or a sustainable trend. The options market is already pricing in volatility, with call options seeing massive volume spikes.

Silver Price Surge and Earnings Catalysts Ignite AG’s Rally
First Majestic’s 12.07% intraday surge is directly tied to a 3.59% jump in silver prices to $53.32/oz, driven by renewed optimism for Fed rate cuts. Lower interest rates weaken the dollar, making silver cheaper for foreign buyers. Additionally, the company’s Q3 2025 results showed a 95% revenue increase to $285.1M, fueled by a 45% rise in silver equivalent payable ounces and a 31% higher realized silver price. The stock also benefits from a $0.0052 dividend, announced alongside record production of 7.7M AgEq oz in Q1 2025. These factors, combined with a 3.12% turnover rate, indicate strong short-term momentum.

Precious Metals Sector Rally: AG Trails Sector Leader PAAS by 6.9%
The precious metals sector is in a bull phase, with Pan American Silver (PAAS) surging 6.9% to lead the pack. While AG’s 12.07% move is robust, PAAS’s performance highlights broader sector strength. Silver’s 3.59% rally is a shared catalyst, but AG’s smaller market cap ($6.65B) and higher beta (0.79) make it more volatile. Institutional buying, including a 32% stake boost by Van ECK Associates, also differentiates AG from peers. However, PAAS’s larger scale and diversified operations may offer more stability.

Options Playbook: AG20251205C15 and AG20251212C15.5 Lead the Charge
• 200-day average: $8.65 (well below current price)
• RSI: 70.75 (overbought)
• MACD: 0.133 (bullish crossover)
• Bollinger Bands: $10.47–$13.40 (price at 15.14, above upper band)

AG’s technicals suggest a continuation of the rally. Key levels to watch: 15.21 (intraday high) and 13.86 (support). A break above 15.21 could target 16.00, while a drop below 13.86 may trigger a pullback. The options market is pricing in aggressive bullish bets, with call options seeing massive volume spikes. Here are two top picks:

• AG20251205C15
- Strike: $15, Expiry: 2025-12-05, IV: 70.80%, Leverage: 20.53%, Delta: 0.57, Theta: -0.077, Gamma: 0.246, Turnover: $21,762
- IV (high volatility), Leverage (moderate), Delta (moderate sensitivity), Gamma (high sensitivity to price swings).
- This call offers a 428.57% price change ratio, ideal for a 5% upside scenario (targeting $15.89). Payoff: max(0, 15.89 - 15) = $0.89 per share.

• AG20251212C15.5
- Strike: $15.50, Expiry: 2025-12-12, IV: 72.91%, Leverage: 19.73%, Delta: 0.48, Theta: -0.046, Gamma: 0.177, Turnover: $89,615
- IV (high volatility), Leverage (moderate), Delta (moderate sensitivity), Gamma (moderate sensitivity).
- This call has a 234.78% price change ratio. Payoff for a 5% upside (targeting $15.89): max(0, 15.89 - 15.50) = $0.39 per share.

Action: Aggressive bulls should prioritize AG20251205C15 for its high gamma and leverage. If the stock holds above 13.86, AG20251212C15.5 offers a safer, longer-dated play.

Backtest First Majestic Stock Performance
Here is the quantitative back-test you requested. I applied the following reasonable defaults (you can revise them at any time):• Price used  : daily close (most common for EOD signal testing). • Risk control : 20 % take-profit, 10 % stop-loss, max 20 holding days – typical settings to protect gains and cap risk when trading post-event momentum. Open the interactive panel below to review the detailed performance metrics, equity curve and trade list.

AG’s 12% Surge: A Short-Term Win or a New Bullish Chapter?
First Majestic’s 12.07% surge is a mix of macro (silver rally) and micro (earnings, dividend) drivers. Technicals are bullish, but RSI at 70.75 warns of overbought conditions. The options market is pricing in continued momentum, with call options seeing massive volume. Investors should watch the 15.21 intraday high for a breakout confirmation and the 13.86 support level for a potential pullback. In the sector, Pan American Silver (PAAS) is surging 6.9%, signaling broader precious metals strength. For now, AG’s rally appears sustainable, but volatility remains high. Act now: Buy AG20251205C15 for a 5% upside target or hold for a break above 15.21.