First Majestic (AG) Surges 12.5% on Silver Rally and Earnings Optimism – What’s Next?

Summary
• First Majestic (AG) rockets 12.5% intraday to $15.20, breaking its 52-week high of $15.69
• Silver prices surge 3.59% to $53.32/oz, driving miner stocks amid Fed rate-cut optimism
• Q3 net income jumps to $43M, 95% revenue growth, and a $0.0052 dividend on Nov 28

First Majestic (AG) is surging on a perfect storm of rising silver prices, robust earnings, and renewed investor appetite for precious metals. The stock’s 12.5% intraday gain—its highest since 2025—reflects a broader commodities rally fueled by expectations of a Fed rate cut. With silver hitting record highs and AG’s Q3 results showcasing a 95% revenue surge, the stock is now testing critical technical levels as volatility intensifies.

Silver Price Surge and Earnings Catalysts Drive AG’s Intraday Rally
First Majestic’s explosive move stems from a confluence of factors. Silver prices climbed 3.59% to $53.32/oz, driven by optimism over a potential Fed rate cut and a weaker dollar, which makes bullion cheaper for foreign buyers. AG, a top silver producer, directly benefits from higher commodity prices. Additionally, the company’s Q3 earnings report revealed a stunning turnaround: net income surged to $43M from a $26.6M loss YoY, with revenue up 95% to $285.1M. The $0.0052 dividend, announced alongside the report, further boosted investor sentiment. Analysts note that AG’s 45% increase in silver equivalent payable ounces and a 31% rise in realized prices underpin its earnings strength.

Silver Sector Bolstered by Commodity Rally; Pan American Silver (PAAS) Trails AG’s Gains
The broader silver sector is rallying on the same tailwinds. Pan American Silver (PAAS), the sector’s leader, gained 7.13% intraday, but AG’s performance outpaces it due to its earnings-driven narrative. While PAAS benefits from the same silver price surge, AG’s Q3 results and dividend announcement created a unique catalyst. The sector’s 52-week high of $15.69 for AG and PAAS’s 7.13% gain highlight divergent momentum. Investors are now parsing whether AG’s earnings-driven rally can sustain itself amid tightening liquidity in the Comex silver market.

Options Playbook: AG20251205C15.5 and AG20251212C15.5 Lead the Charge
• 200-day average: $8.65 (well below current price)
• RSI: 70.75 (overbought)
• MACD Histogram: 0.13 (bullish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $15.20, above upper band of $13.40

AG’s technicals scream short-term bullish momentum. The stock is trading above its 200-day MA by 75%, with RSI in overbought territory and a positive MACD histogram. Key resistance lies at $15.69 (52W high), while support is near $13.86 (intraday low). The 70.75 RSI suggests overbought conditions, but the MACD’s bullish divergence and Bollinger Band breakouts indicate continuation potential. For leveraged exposure, the options chain offers two standout plays:

• AG20251205C15.5: Call option with 400% price change ratio, 30.41% leverage, and 70.15% IV. Delta of 0.483156 (moderate sensitivity), theta of -0.047121 (strong time decay), and gamma of 0.174396 (high sensitivity to price swings). Turnover of $89,773 confirms liquidity. A 5% upside to $15.96 would yield a payoff of $0.46/share, or 29% return on the strike.
• AG20251212C15.5: Call option with 243.48% price change ratio, 19.25% leverage, and 74.14% IV. Delta of 0.483156 (similar to above), theta of -0.047121, and gamma of 0.174396. Turnover of $89,773. A 5% move would generate $0.46/share, or 29% return. Both contracts offer high gamma and moderate delta, ideal for a continuation of the rally.

Aggressive bulls may consider AG20251205C15.5 into a break above $15.26, with a stop below $14.50 to protect gains.

Backtest First Majestic Stock Performance
Here is the event-based back-test you asked for. Key assumptions that were auto-filled during the workflow (and why):1. Start / End dates • Start: 2022-01-01 – first full trading day in your requested window. • End: 2025-11-28 – “now”, per your request time-stamp.2. Surge definition • Intraday surge identified as (Close ÷ Open – 1) ≥ 13 %.3. Event list generation • The data scan found one qualifying date: 2024-04-04. • That list was supplied to the event back-test engine.4. Back-test settings • Price series: Close price. • Evaluation window: 30 trading days after each event (default). • Benchmark: AG.N itself (buy-and-hold) over the same horizon.5. Visualization • Results have been stored and linked via the embedded module below.Key takeaways from the results:• Only one 13 %+ intraday surge occurred in the sample, so statistical power is limited. • AG.N gained ≈ 3.9 % on the first day after the surge and ≈ 7.6 % by day 3, but then retraced, finishing ~0.9 % lower by day 30. • Win-rate falls from 100 % (days 1–6) to 0 % beyond day 7, showing the initial momentum faded quickly. • All t-tests are “not significant” because of the single-event sample; more events are required for robust inference.Actionable interpretation:• A ≥13 % intraday spike in AG.N has historically (in this period) not indicated sustained upside; gains reversed within two weeks. • For trading strategies, consider: – Very short-term momentum capture (1-3 days) rather than multi-week holding. – Tight risk controls (e.g., stop-loss around prior-day close) to protect against the typical pull-back. • To build statistical confidence, you might enlarge the universe (e.g., include other silver miners) or lower the surge threshold (e.g., 10 %) to collect more events.Please explore the interactive report for detailed PnL curves, distribution of post-event returns, and daily statistics:Feel free to review the module for charts and tables, and let me know if you’d like to adjust parameters (e.g., different surge thresholds, longer/shorter holding windows, or adding peer companies for comparison).

Bullish Momentum Intact – AG Eyes $15.69 52W High as Silver Volatility Persists
First Majestic’s 12.5% surge is a testament to the power of commodity-driven earnings and macro optimism. With silver at record highs and AG’s Q3 results defying expectations, the stock is primed to test its 52-week high of $15.69. However, overbought RSI and thin liquidity in the Comex market suggest caution. Investors should monitor the $15.26 intraday high as a critical breakout level and watch Pan American Silver (PAAS) at +7.13% for sector-wide validation. For those seeking leverage, AG20251205C15.5 offers a high-gamma, high-liquidity path to capitalize on the rally. Watch for a break above $15.26 or a reversal in silver prices to dictate next steps.