Madrigal Soars 10% Amid Landmark Patent Milestone—Here’s What’s Next

• Madrigal (MDGL) surged 10.29% to $343.15, nearing its 52W high of $377.46.
• Secured a U.S. patent for Rezdiffra’s dosing regimen, extending protection to 2044.
• Intraday range: $327.15 (open) to $349.00—breaking resistance at $327.00.

A biotech breakthrough has ignited a fire under MDGL shares, with patent news sparking a technical breakout. The stock’s 10% leap today mirrors its aggressive 393% 3-year outperformance of the S&P 500—a trajectory now fortified by regulatory exclusivity.

Patent Protection Ignites 'First-of-Kind' MASH Drug Momentum
Madrigal’s 10% surge stems directly from its FDA-Orange-Book-listed patent for Rezdiffra’s weight-based dosing regimen. This milestone not only secures monopoly pricing power through 2044 but also validates its status as the sole approved treatment for noncirrhotic MASH with fibrosis. CEO Bill Sibold’s 'pivotal milestone' framing underscores the strategic significance: with no generics threatening its $1.5 billion+ annual revenue stream, institutional investors are pricing in decades of cash flow stability. The patent’s inclusion in the FDA’s Orange Book—a critical step for formulary adoption—further accelerates its path to becoming a standard-of-care therapy.

Bullish Technicals Meet High-Impact Options—How to Play the Surge
Technicals:
• 200-day MA: $300.45 (now 14% undervalued)
• RSI: 64.77 (neutral, below overbought 70)
• MACD: +2.53 (bullish crossover confirmed)
• Upper Bollinger Band: $322.40 (price now $20.75 above)

Trade Setup: Aggressive bulls should target $349.00 (intraday high) before testing $377.46 (52W peak). Key resistance at $340-$350 could see profit-taking, but strong volume (220k shares) suggests institutional accumulation. Avoid shorts below $327.15—the 200-day MA anchor.

Top Option Picks:
1. MDGL20250815C330 (Call, Aug 15):
- Strike: $330.00 | Delta: 0.69 | Gamma: 0.0104
- Theta: -0.506 (rapid time decay)
- Implied Vol: 33.98% (mid-range liquidity)
- Leverage: 15.62% (2.7x returns vs stock)
- Play: A near-term bet on $345+ rallies. At $350, payoff = $20 intrinsic + volatility premium.

2. MDGL20251017C330 (Call, Oct 17):
- Strike: $330.00 | Delta: 0.79 | Gamma: 0.0126
- Theta: -0.155 (slower decay)
- Implied Vol: 12.98% (undervalued option)
- Leverage: 17.09% (3.2x returns)
- Play: Long-dated leverage for $400+ targets. If volatility expands, this could triple in value.

Action Hook: For immediate upside, buy MDGL20250815C330 while volatility is still discounted. For patient investors, the October call offers asymmetric risk/reward at current prices.

Backtest Madrigal Stock Performance
The backtest of Medigene's (MDGL) performance after a 10% intraday surge shows mixed results. While the stock experienced a positive surge, the returns over various time frames were relatively modest, and the maximum return during the backtest period was only 0.50% over 30 days.

Hold the Line at $327—Madrigal’s Patent Play Could Double Again
Madrigal’s patent win has created a structural advantage no competitor can match before 2044. With Rezdiffra’s NASH monopoly and technicals breaking multiyear resistance, this rally isn’t a flash in the pan. Watch for sustained momentum above $327—failure here would test $300 support, but bullish MACD and RSI suggest a higher risk/reward profile. Sector leader Amgen (AMGN)’s 0.85% gain pales against MDGL’s outperformance—this is a stock to own in a MASH market. Final Call: Hold through $350 resistance—next target: $377.46 or beyond.