Macroeconomist Lyn Alden Predicts Bitcoin to End 2025 Above Current Price

Macroeconomist Lyn Alden has expressed optimism about Bitcoin's potential to end 2025 at a higher price point than its current level. In a recent interview, Alden shared her insights on the factors driving Bitcoin's price and the conditions that could propel it to new heights.

Alden initially had a more optimistic forecast for Bitcoin in 2025, but the announcement of new tariffs by President Donald Trump in February introduced market uncertainty, impacting investor sentiment. Despite this setback, Alden remains confident that Bitcoin will close the year stronger than its current position.

One of the key drivers Alden highlights is liquidity. A "massive liquidity unlock" in the U.S. economy could serve as a powerful catalyst for Bitcoin. If the bond market faces challenges and the Federal Reserve implements strategies like yield curve control or quantitative easing (QE), it could flood the market with liquidity, boosting risk assets like Bitcoin. Under such conditions, Alden suggests that Bitcoin could revisit the $100,000 mark before the end of the year. However, she cautions that the journey will not be smooth, with potential "down days" where prices pull back.

Bitcoin's 24/7 trading nature sets it apart from traditional assets, making it more volatile. Unlike stock markets that close on weekends, Bitcoin trades continuously, which can lead to quicker reactions to market changes. For instance, if traditional financial markets show signs of panic, Bitcoin may be the first to react, with investors potentially selling their holdings to stay ahead of market movements.

Alden also believes that Bitcoin could decouple from the Nasdaq, especially in situations where Nasdaq companies face margin pressure but global liquidity remains strong. She points to the period between 2003 and 2007 as an example, where money flowed into emerging markets, gold, and commodities while U.S. stocks were not the top choice. A similar trend could benefit Bitcoin.

In her earlier research, Alden noted that Bitcoin tends to follow global money supply trends, moving in the same direction as global M2 about 83% of the time over 12 months. This strong correlation to global liquidity has earned Bitcoin the nickname "a global liquidity barometer."

In summary, Alden remains bullish on Bitcoin, acknowledging that external forces like tariffs have tempered expectations. However, if market conditions shift in favor of higher liquidity, Bitcoin could climb beyond $100,000, with its unique trading nature and macro connections playing significant roles in its journey.