Macro Uncertainties Drive $600M Exodus from Bitcoin ETFs to Gold

Bitcoin ETF outflows surged to $363.1 million on September 22, 2025, marking the largest single-day withdrawal in the category’s history, according to Farside Investors and SoSoValue data. The sell-off, led by Fidelity’s FBTC with $276.7 million in redemptions, coincided with Bitcoin’s price dropping below $110,000 for the first time in months. By September 25, outflows continued, totaling $253.4 million, with FBTC again at the forefront, recording $114.8 million in redemptions. BlackRock’s IBIT was the only fund to post inflows ($79.7 million), underscoring a fragmented institutional response to market volatilityFarside Investors^[1].

The ETF outflows reflect a broader shift in investor behavior, with all 12 Bitcoin ETFs reporting net redemptions on September 22. This marked a reversal from the $886.65 million in weekly inflows recorded the prior week. Ethereum ETFs also saw universal outflows of $75.95 million, with no fund attracting positive flows. The synchronized selling pressure across both Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs suggests a coordinated risk-off strategy by institutional players amid macroeconomic uncertainties, including the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance and inflation concernsSoSoValue^[2].

Bitcoin’s price action mirrored the ETF trends, falling to a four-week low of $108,700 by late September 25. On-chain metrics indicated extreme profit-taking, with over 3.4 million BTC realized by long-term holders, a level historically associated with market tops. Short-term holders faced liquidation risks as the Short-Term Holder NUPL indicator hovered near zero. Analysts warned of deeper corrections if Bitcoin breached $107,500, the early September low, noting that stop-loss selling could amplify downward momentumGlassnode^[3].

The gold market, in contrast, continued its 2025 rally, hitting a record high of $3,700 per ounce. Institutional investors increasingly favored gold over Bitcoin, citing its structural advantages as a safe-haven asset. Gold’s 39% year-to-date gain outperformed Bitcoin’s 24% rise, with analysts attributing the divergence to Bitcoin’s volatility and regulatory uncertainties. Joe Consorti, a Bitcoin analyst, noted that gold typically leads Bitcoin by about 100 days, suggesting Bitcoin could follow suit in the fourth quarter if macroeconomic conditions alignJoe Consorti^[4]. Peter Schiff, a gold advocate, argued that Bitcoin’s 16% underperformance against gold since 2021 indicated a shift in capital toward traditional safe havensPeter Schiff^[5].

The interplay between gold and Bitcoin highlighted broader market dynamics. While Bitcoin’s capped supply and institutional adoption positioned it as a long-term store of value, its price action remained sensitive to macroeconomic cycles. Tephra Digital projected Bitcoin could reach $167,000–$185,000 if historical correlations with gold and global M2 money supply held. However, immediate risks included a potential 15% drawdown if Bitcoin failed to hold $109,000–$110,000 supportTephra Digital^[6].

Institutional flows and regulatory developments further complicated the outlook. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s scrutiny of crypto treasury deals and the proposed CLARITY Act, which could classify Bitcoin as a commodity, added uncertainty. Deutsche Bank’s forecast for Bitcoin to become a reserve asset by 2030 underscored its potential as a hedge against inflation, but short-term volatility remained tied to macroeconomic and regulatory shiftsDeutsche Bank^[7].