Macro Bank (BMA) Shares Plunge 23.48% Amid Fed Rate Cut Fears, Weak Labor Data

Shares of Macro Bank (BMA) plunged 23.48% on Monday, marking its lowest intraday level since August 2024, as a 24.05% drop underscored investor concerns over macroeconomic headwinds and shifting Federal Reserve policy expectations. The selloff reflects a confluence of factors, including declining mortgage rates driven by weak labor market data and speculation about aggressive Fed rate cuts.

Weaker-than-expected U.S. employment figures, including a revised 22,000 jobs added in August 2025 and downward adjustments to prior months’ gains, have intensified market anticipation of a 50-basis-point rate reduction at the Fed’s September 17 meeting. Lower mortgage rates, which fell to 6.28% on September 9—the lowest in nearly a year—have boosted refinancing activity, with 3.1 million mortgages now "in the money" for refinancing. However, banks like BMA face a delicate balance between higher loan volumes and compressed profit margins in a low-rate environment.

While declining rates typically benefit mortgage lenders by stimulating refinancing demand, the broader economic context introduces risks. A slowing labor market raises concerns about household income stability and potential credit defaults, which could strain BMA’s risk profile. Meanwhile, the Fed’s rate-cutting trajectory remains contingent on inflation data, which has yet to meet the central bank’s 2% target. Persistent inflation could limit the extent of rate cuts, capping the positive impact on BMA’s operations.

Market participants remain cautious about the trajectory of mortgage rates. Industry experts warn against over-optimism, noting historical instances where rates rebounded after Fed cuts. This uncertainty complicates BMA’s strategic planning, as customer behavior hinges on short-term rate expectations. Upcoming economic releases, including revised jobs data and inflation figures, will be critical in shaping future policy and lending conditions. For now, BMA’s performance appears closely tied to the interplay of Fed action, economic resilience, and borrower demand in a volatile market.