Macquarie Quants Pick Vauban as Melbourne Cup Winner

The Melbourne Cup, Australia's most prestigious horse race, is set to take place on November 5, 2024, and this year, Macquarie Quants has made a bold prediction: Vauban is their pick to win the coveted event. With a strong track record and impressive form, Vauban has emerged as a top contender in the 24-horse field.

Vauban, trained by renowned Irish trainer Willie Mullins and ridden by experienced jockey William Buick, has shown remarkable consistency and form leading up to the 2024 Melbourne Cup. The six-year-old gelding has won eight of his 20 starts, including a dominant victory in the Lonsdale Cup (Gr 2) over 3319m in August 2024. Vauban's recent second-place finish in the Irish St Leger (Gr 1) over 2816m also demonstrates his ability to compete at the highest level.

Macquarie Quants' prediction is backed by their advanced model, which analyzed 40,000 participants over 4,000 horse races. The model, enhanced by behavioral bias analysis, has identified Vauban as the favored contender. The horse's strong form, proven stamina, and favorable barrier draw have led the model to conclude that Vauban is undervalued relative to its true chances of winning.


William Buick's experience riding Vauban in the 2023 Melbourne Cup, where the horse finished 14th, is a crucial factor in Macquarie Quants' prediction for 2024. Despite the disappointing result, Buick's familiarity with Vauban's running style and preferences may provide valuable insights for this year's race. The jockey's extensive experience in the Melbourne Cup, having ridden two winners in 2018 and 2019, further bolsters his credibility in the model's prediction.

Vauban's barrier draw of 11 in the 2024 Melbourne Cup is favorable, as it allows him to settle in a midfield position without being too far back or too close to the lead. This draw, combined with his proven stamina and consistent form, strengthens Macquarie Quants' prediction of Vauban as a strong contender for the Melbourne Cup title.


While Macquarie Quants' prediction is based on a robust model and strong form, it is essential to consider potential risks and biases. The Melbourne Cup is a highly competitive event with a diverse field, and unexpected variables can impact the outcome. Punters should weigh the model's assessment against other factors, such as jockey and trainer form, horse stamina, and barrier position, when making their final decisions.

In conclusion, Macquarie Quants' prediction of Vauban as the Melbourne Cup winner is supported by the horse's impressive form, proven stamina, and favorable barrier draw. While the race is unpredictable, and risks remain, Vauban's strong track record and the model's assessment make him a top contender for the 2024 Melbourne Cup title.