The MACD Bullish Divergence in Altcoin/BTC Pairs: A Strategic Entry Point for 2025 Bull Market Participation

The cryptocurrency market is on the cusp of a pivotal inflection point. As of November 2025, altcoin/BTC pairs are exhibiting a rare technical signal: a MACD bullish divergence with a curling upward histogram after years of bearish consolidation. This divergence, historically a precursor to altseasons, suggests that altcoins are poised to outperform Bitcoin in the next bull cycle. For investors seeking high-conviction exposure, combining this technical signal with a core-satellite portfolio strategy-leveraging the TM Global 100 as a core holding-offers a disciplined framework to capitalize on asymmetric returns while managing risk.

MACD Bullish Divergence: A Proven Market Signal

The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) is a momentum oscillator that measures the relationship between two moving averages of a security's price. A bullish divergence occurs when the price of altcoin/BTC pairs forms lower lows, but the MACD forms higher lows, indicating weakening selling pressure and strengthening buying momentum.

According to @CryptoMichNL, the Altcoins/BTC MACD has shown a "first green histogram in four years," signaling the potential start of a new altseason. This divergence is particularly significant in the context of Bitcoin's recent underperformance. As data shows, as of November 2025, only 5% of the Top 500 altcoins are in profit, while Bitcoin's profitability is in a sharp decline. This divergence between Bitcoin and altcoin markets underscores a shift in liquidity dynamics, where altcoins are transitioning from capitulation to accumulation.

Historical data from prior bull cycles (2017 and 2021) reinforces the predictive power of this signal. During these periods, altcoins outperformed Bitcoin after MACD bullish divergences, with select tokens achieving 5x to 10x gains. For example, in the 2015–2018 cycle, Bitcoin surged 11,018.09% from bear market lows, while altcoins saw even higher relative gains as DeFi and NFTs drove innovation. The 2020–2021 bull market further amplified this trend, with decentralized finance (DeFi) tokens and layer-2 solutions capturing speculative flows according to analysis.

Core-Satellite Portfolios: Balancing Risk and Reward

To optimize exposure to this emerging opportunity, investors should adopt a core-satellite portfolio strategy. This approach allocates the majority of capital to a diversified core holding (e.g., the TM Global 100 index) while reserving a smaller portion for high-conviction satellite positions in altcoins.

The TM Global 100, developed by Token Metrics, is a regime-aware index that holds the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization during bull markets and shifts to stablecoins during bear markets according to research. By allocating 70% of capital to this core position, investors gain broad exposure to the crypto market while mitigating downside risk through systematic rebalancing and active risk management as reported. The remaining 30% can be allocated to satellite positions, where MACD divergence signals can guide tactical entries into mid-cap and emerging tokens.

This strategy is particularly effective in bull markets, where rapid narrative rotations and volatility create asymmetric opportunities. For instance, during the 2021 bull run, satellite strategies using MACD divergence improved win-rates by combining the indicator with supplementary tools like RSI and Fibonacci levels. By timing entries based on divergence, investors can avoid overpaying for tokens in late-stage momentum phases.

Integrating MACD Divergence into Satellite Strategies

The key to successful satellite allocation lies in disciplined execution. MACD divergence acts as an early warning system for trend reversals or momentum shifts. For example, a bullish divergence in an altcoin's price action-where the price makes a lower low but the MACD makes a higher low-can signal a potential breakout. Conversely, a bearish divergence (price makes a higher high while MACD makes a lower high) can indicate weakening momentum, prompting a reduction in exposure as explained.

In the context of core-satellite portfolios, these signals can refine satellite allocations. During the 2021 bull market, investors who used MACD divergence to time entries into DeFi tokens like Uniswap (UNI) and Aave (AAVE) captured outsized gains as the sector matured. Similarly, in 2025, tokens with strong fundamentals in AI, blockchain interoperability, or energy-efficient consensus mechanisms could benefit from early divergence signals.

However, it's critical to avoid overreliance on MACD alone. Studies show, US stock market strategies using MACD-based systems with traditional parameters (12, 26, 9) often yield suboptimal results, with win-rates below 50%. To enhance reliability, investors should combine MACD with volume analysis and other indicators like RSI. For example, a bullish divergence confirmed by rising volume and an RSI rebound from oversold levels increases the probability of a successful trade.

Strategic Implications for 2025

The current market environment aligns with historical patterns of altcoin outperformance. With Bitcoin's dominance waning and altcoin/BTC pairs showing a curling MACD histogram, the stage is set for a new altseason. For investors, the combination of a core-satellite portfolio and MACD-driven satellite strategies offers a structured approach to navigate this transition.

The TM Global 100 provides a stable foundation, while satellite allocations guided by technical signals allow for targeted exposure to high-conviction opportunities. This approach balances the need for broad market participation with the agility to capitalize on emerging narratives. As the 2025 bull market unfolds, disciplined investors who integrate these strategies will be well-positioned to outperform the broader market.