Macao's Tourism Turnaround: Betting on Land Borders and Infrastructure in the New Era of Day Trips

The tourism landscape in Macao has undergone a seismic shift post-pandemic, with mainland Chinese day-trippers from the Greater Bay Area (GBA) driving a revival that’s reshaping the gaming and infrastructure sectors. As land arrivals surge—particularly from Zhuhai—and air travel lags behind pre-pandemic levels, investors must pivot toward companies and assets positioned at the intersection of geography, policy, and short-visit tourism. The era of relying on international air traffic is fading, and those who recognize the new structural realities stand to profit handsomely.

The New Visitor Landscape: Land Dominates, Air Lags

The numbers are stark: In Q1 2025, land arrivals to Macao jumped 15.4% year-on-year, accounting for 82.1% of total visitors, while air arrivals grew a paltry 0.9%, remaining 20.5% below 2019 levels. The GBA, especially Zhuhai, is the engine behind this shift. Visitors from the GBA’s nine Pearl River Delta cities rose 18.8% to 3.58 million in Q1 2025, with Zhuhai alone surging 50.3%. This boom is fueled by China’s “One Trip Per Week” and “Multiple Entries” policies, which have made cross-border travel between Macao and neighboring cities as seamless as a weekend errand.

The implications are clear: land-proximate casinos and infrastructure projects are now the sweet spots. Operators like SJM Holdings and Galaxy Entertainment, which dominate the northern border zones near the Border Gate and Hengqin ports, are poised to capture the wallets of these day-trippers. Meanwhile, properties reliant on air traffic—such as those farther from the border—face headwinds as international tourists remain hesitant.

Infrastructure Plays: Hengqin and the GBA’s New Lifeline

The surge in GBA visitors is not accidental—it’s a policy-driven gold rush. The Hengqin port expansion, part of China’s broader GBA integration plan, is a linchpin. With 257,000 trips from Zhuhai by January 2025—a 26.1% jump—expanding capacity here is critical. Investors should watch for construction timelines and concession agreements for Hengqin, as well as regional rail projects linking Zhuhai to Macao.

Firms like China Merchants Port Holdings, which manages key GBA ports, and local contractors involved in border infrastructure stand to benefit. The GBA’s integration is a $200 billion+ opportunity over the next decade, with Macao’s role as a “playground” for the region’s affluent population cementing its position.

The Gaming Sector’s New Winners and Losers

The gaming industry’s recovery is uneven. Properties near land borders are thriving: SJM’s The Londoner and Galaxy’s northern outlets are drawing high volumes of budget-conscious day-trippers who prioritize convenience over luxury. These visitors spend less per capita than pre-pandemic high rollers but in larger numbers—Macao’s total visitor count is now 71.6% of 2019 levels, but revenue growth is lagging due to this shift toward mass tourism.

Investors should favor operators with strong land-border exposure. Meanwhile, properties reliant on air arrivals—such as those targeting long-stay international tourists—are under pressure. The Venetian Macao, for instance, may struggle as air traffic remains depressed, especially with competition from Manila’s casinos and Southeast Asia’s rising travel options.

Risks: Overexposure to Air Travel and Retail Softness

The decline in air arrivals isn’t just a temporary glitch. Post-pandemic travelers are opting for shorter trips, and Macao’s high-end retail sector—once the backbone of its economy—is suffering. Luxury sales fell 12.2% in Q3 2023 as mainland tourists prioritize experiences over shopping. This structural shift means investors should avoid companies overly reliant on high-margin retail or international tourism.

Conclusion: Allocate to the Border, Build on Infrastructure

The writing is on the wall: Macao’s future is land-connected and GBA-driven. The surge in day-trippers from Zhuhai and the Pearl River Delta is a structural trend, not a blip. Investors should:
1. Buy land-proximate gaming stocks: SJM, Galaxy, and Wynn Macau (if it pivots aggressively)
2. Back infrastructure plays: Hengqin expansions and GBA logistics firms
3. Avoid air-dependent assets: Properties far from borders and pure-play luxury retailers

The Macao of 2025 is not the Macao of 2019. It’s a market where accessibility trumps luxury, and proximity to the GBA’s 70 million residents is the ultimate moat. The window to capitalize on this shift is now—act before the smart money piles in.