LUNR Soars 20.8% on Trump’s Lunar Blueprint: Is This the Dawn of a New Space Era?

Summary
• Intuitive Machines (LUNR) surges 20.8% intraday, trading at $13.11 amid Trump’s aggressive lunar policy rollout.
• KeyBanc initiates 'Overweight' rating with $20 price target, citing $1B pro-forma backlog and Lanteris acquisition.
• Stocktwits sentiment flips to 'neutral' as message volume spikes to 'High' levels.

Intuitive Machines (LUNR) is experiencing a historic intraday rally, surging 20.8% to $13.11 as Trump’s executive order on lunar dominance sparks renewed investor optimism. The stock’s sharp rebound from a 12-month low of $6.14 to its current level—just 34% below its 52-week high—reflects a confluence of policy tailwinds, strategic acquisitions, and analyst upgrades. With institutional buying from First Trust and Susquehanna, and a $28.7M government contract pipeline, the space explorer is poised to capitalize on a $1.84B market cap rally.

Trump’s Lunar Policy Ignites LUNR’s Meteoric Surge
The 20.8% intraday spike in LUNR is directly tied to President Trump’s executive order mandating a human return to the Moon by 2028 and a permanent lunar station by 2030. Intuitive Machines, with its Moon RACER rover and recent acquisition of Lanteris Space Systems, is now a key player in NASA’s Artemis missions. The company’s $22M NSN services contract and $3.6M Lunar Logistics study award position it to benefit from accelerated government spending. Analysts at KeyBanc and Cantor Fitzgerald highlight LUNR’s scalable lunar services and $1B pro-forma backlog as catalysts, while insider buying by Michael Blitzer and institutional inflows from First Trust and Susquehanna underscore conviction.

Aerospace & Defense Sector Trails LUNR’s Lunar Leap
While LUNR surges, the broader Aerospace & Defense sector remains muted, with Lockheed Martin (LMT), the sector leader, up just 0.19% intraday. The sector’s focus on terrestrial defense contracts and slower-moving government budgets contrasts with LUNR’s speculative lunar infrastructure play. However, the sector’s 1.87% gain via the State Street SPDR Aerospace & Defense ETF (XAR) suggests some cross-sector optimism. LUNR’s outperformance reflects its unique positioning in the Trump administration’s moonshot agenda, which prioritizes private-sector lunar development over traditional defense spending.

Leverage Lunar Momentum: ETFs and Options for the Bull Case
• ROKT (80.86, 0% change) and UFO (37.28, +2.81%) lead space-themed ETFs, while XAR (237.5, +1.87%) tracks the broader sector.
• RSI (59.8) suggests LUNR is neither overbought nor oversold; MACD (0.259) and positive histogram signal bullish momentum.
• Bollinger Bands show current price at 12.94 (upper) vs. 10.397 (middle), indicating a strong breakout.

For leveraged exposure, consider ROKT and UFO, which track emerging space tech and defense innovation. Technically, LUNR’s 200-day MA (10.05) is a critical support level, while the 52-week high at $24.95 remains a distant target. Two options stand out for short-term bullish bets:

• LUNR20251226C13: Call option with 13 strike, 12/26 expiration. IV: 127.66% (high volatility), leverage ratio: 14.27%, delta: 0.513 (moderate sensitivity), theta: -0.0898 (moderate time decay), gamma: 0.1643 (high sensitivity to price swings), turnover: 26,429 (liquid). This contract offers a 500% price change ratio, ideal for a 5% upside scenario (target price: $13.76).
• LUNR20251226C13.5: Call option with 13.5 strike, 12/26 expiration. IV: 136.93%, leverage ratio: 16.68%, delta: 0.444, theta: -0.0896, gamma: 0.1517, turnover: 11,941. With a 616.67% price change ratio, this contract thrives on volatility and liquidity, suiting aggressive bulls expecting a $14.26 target.

Aggressive bulls may consider LUNR20251226C13.5 into a bounce above $13.50, while conservative traders should watch the 200-day MA at $10.05 as a critical support level.

Backtest Intuitive Machines Stock Performance
The backtest of LUNR's performance after a 21% intraday surge from 2022 to now shows favorable results. The 3-Day win rate is 50.58%, the 10-Day win rate is 52.92%, and the 30-Day win rate is 56.73%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the short term. The maximum return during the backtest was 18.56%, which occurred on day 57, suggesting that LUNR can deliver significant gains following the intraday surge.

Moonshot Momentum: Time to Lock In Lunar Gains?
LUNR’s 20.8% intraday surge reflects a perfect storm of policy tailwinds, institutional buying, and speculative fervor. While the stock remains 34% below its 52-week high, the Trump administration’s lunar agenda and KeyBanc’s $20 price target suggest further upside. However, the stock’s -88% net margin and Altman Z-Score of 1.09 (distress zone) highlight risks. Investors should monitor the 200-day MA at $10.05 and the sector leader Lockheed Martin (LMT, +0.19%) for broader aerospace sentiment. For now, LUNR20251226C13 and LUNR20251226C13.5 offer high-leverage plays on a 5% upside scenario. Watch for a breakdown below $11.70 or a breakout above $13.30 to confirm the trend.