LUNA/USDT Breaks Out—But RSI Divergence Raises Red Flags

Summary
• LUNA/USDT formed key support near 0.0585 and tested resistance at 0.0602–0.0603 on the 5-minute chart.
• Price surged past 0.0610 with increasing volume and turnover in the late morning, indicating growing bullish momentum.
• A potential bearish divergence emerged in the RSI during the afternoon, suggesting possible near-term exhaustion.
• Volatility expanded significantly with Bollinger Bands widening after 0.0610 as volume spiked.
• Fibonacci retracement levels at 0.0624 and 0.0640 are key targets if the current bullish trend continues.

At 12:00 ET–1 on February 23, 2026, Terra/Tether (LUNAUSDT) opened at 0.0599, surged to a high of 0.0658, and settled at 0.0610 by 12:00 ET on February 24. The 24-hour volume reached approximately 36.3 million LUNA, with notional turnover at $2.33 million.

Structure & Formations

Price carved a bullish ascending triangle on the 5-minute chart between 0.0585 and 0.0603 before breaking above 0.0610, supported by a strong bullish engulfing pattern at 0.0610–0.0612. A double-bottom structure formed near 0.0585 provided critical support, confirmed by a rising volume profile during the consolidation phase.

Key Moving Averages and Momentum

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 5-minute chart crossed to the upside during the rally, reinforcing the bullish bias. On the daily chart, LUNA/USDT closed above the 50-period MA, aligning with a broader uptrend. The MACD line crossed above the signal line around 07:00 ET, confirming a surge in buying momentum. RSI reached overbought territory above 70, but diverged slightly in the afternoon as price continued higher, suggesting a potential pullback.

Volatility and Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands experienced a sharp expansion following the break above 0.0610, indicating a period of high volatility. Price remained above the 20-period moving average for most of the session and briefly touched the upper band, reinforcing the strength of the breakout.

Volume and Turnover

Volume surged notably during the late morning and early afternoon, particularly between 07:00 and 09:00 ET, when the price pushed above 0.0610. Turnover mirrored volume trends and reached a peak at 07:30 ET, when the price crossed 0.0648. A divergence was observed between volume and price as LUNA/USDT approached 0.0658, with volume failing to expand further, hinting at potential exhaustion.

Forward Outlook and Risk

LUNA/USDT appears to be in a strong short-term bullish trend, with key resistance at 0.0640 and 0.0665 ahead. However, the overbought RSI and diverging volume suggest caution. A consolidation phase or pullback to 0.0602–0.0605 may be likely before further upside. Investors should monitor volume during the next breakout attempt for confirmation of sustained momentum.